When the first World Cup was lit in 1930 in the small South American nation of Uruguay, there were only 13 teams competing for the Remet Gold Cup on the football map. Now, 100 years later, FIFA is trying to spread this invitation to the football temple to 64 countries around the world, so that more than a quarter of FIFA members can share the glory. This centennial celebration spanning three continents and six countries is not only the ultimate response to the wave of globalization of football, but also a milestone event in the process of capitalization of competitive sports. However, when the ticket to the World Cup has changed from a scarce resource to an inclusive commodity, the value core of this ancient event is undergoing unprecedented deconstruction and reconstruction.

1. The utopian narrative of the democratization of football

FIFA President Gianni Infantino packaged the expansion plan as a grand narrative of "allowing more countries to witness the light of football". The number of seats in Asia could increase from 8.5 to 12, Africa from 9.5 to 13, and CONCACAF could exceed nine – meaning that the fishing village boys of the Comoros and the rainforest tribes of the Solomon Islands will all get a ticket to compete with the European giants. Just as the 19th-century World's Fair exported industrial civilization to the colonies, the World Cup is forging a new geopolitical order for football.

But with this promise of democratization lies a paradox: when "footballing developing countries" such as Papua New Guinea and San Marino rush to the finals, the group stage could become a goalscoring show for the traditional powerhouses. In the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Germany's 7-0 sweep of Costa Rica has shown signs of an imbalance. The expanded World Cup may see more "teaching matches" similar to the 2002 Chinese team's three-game net swallowing nine bombs, and this "pseudo-globalization" may dissolve the competitive authority of the World Cup as a top-level competition.

Second, the industrialization of the event under the capital gear

From 104 matches in the 48-team model in 2026 to 128 games in the 64-team scheme in 2030, the World Cup is evolving into a "football perpetual motion machine". The 45-day long schedule is comparable to that of an industrial assembly line, and the intensity of nearly 3 matches per day is enough for broadcasters to open their own channels. FIFA expects revenue to exceed $11 billion in 2026, a 46% increase from the Qatar World Cup, which is behind the geometric expansion of the sponsor matrix, and the green field is evolving into a colosseum for global brands.

This industrial transformation is reshaping the ecology of football. When the Saudi sovereign fund acquired Newcastle United and the Qatari consortium took over Paris Saint-Germain, the expansion of the World Cup was actually the key to the global layout of football capital. The huge volume of the top 64 will not only bring more broadcast shares, but also activate the football consumption potential of emerging markets - just like the NBA opened up the eastern market through the China game, the World Cup is building its own "football Silk Road".

3. The twilight of competitive ethics

Behind the expansion of the tournament lurks a deep competitive crisis. The 8.5 quota places in the South American zone mean that all members except Bolivia will have direct access to the World Cup, and the qualifying tournament will lose the brutal charm of the "South American meat grinder". Players' health is even more of a concern: the revamped Club World Cup in 2025 and the second edition of the tournament in 2029, together with the 2026 and 2030 World Cups and the 2028 European Championships, constitute a five-year summer and winter pattern. Cristiano Ronaldo still has to play for his country at the age of 39, and Mbappe is likely to run out of sporting life before the age of 30, reminiscent of the penalized Sisyphus of ancient Greek mythology – a never-ending push of rocks up the mountain.

The logistical system is also facing extreme challenges. The six hosts share 128 matches, which seems to relieve the pressure but creates new chaos: Morocco and Portugal fly more than 2,000 kilometres without stops, and the group stage could see the team travel across three continents in a single week. The average daily tourist flow of 100,000 during the 2022 Qatar World Cup may swell into a million-level migration lasting 45 days under the 64-team model.

Fourth, the fork in the road of football civilization

Looking back at the 1930 Centennial Stadium in Uruguay, the 40,000 spectators witnessed not only the coming-of-age ceremony of football, but also the crowning of traditional sportsmanship by modernity. Now, when the World Cup is running wild on the road of commercialization and popularization, we have to ask: will this event become the holy grail carrying the glory of the country, or a propaganda tool for the globalization of capital?

The round of 64 plan is like the "ship of Theseus" in the football world - when more than half of the planks are replaced, is the World Cup still the football temple that brought Maradona to tears and made David Beckham leave the field in red? Perhaps the answer lies in the silhouette of a teenager chasing a plastic bag soccer ball in the African savannah, or in an artificial turf built between Iceland's volcanic rocks. When the World Cup truly becomes a dialogue field for global civilizations, the expansion of the military will have historical significance beyond commercial considerations. After all, football should never be the preserve of a few elites, but how to keep the participation of the general public from becoming a footnote to the carnival of capital will be the problem of the century that FIFA needs to answer.