In the WTA 1000 Montreal semifinal, former Wimbledon champion Rybakina dominated the first set and held a match point in the deciding set with a serve to win, but ultimately failed to secure the victory, losing to Canadian wildcard player Mboko with a score of 6-1, 5-7, 6-7(4), missing out on the final. This defeat marked Rybakina's fifth time this season coming close to victory but falling short, as she seems to have fallen into a "decisive set collapse" curse recently.
Notably, this is Rybakina's fifth time this season being overturned from a favorable position:
1. Montreal semifinal: missed the serve to win at 5-4 in the deciding set, losing 6-1, 5-7, 6-7(4) to Mboko;
2. Washington semifinal: missed the serve to win at 5-4 in the second set, lost 6-7(3), and ultimately lost 6-7(3) in the deciding set tiebreak to Fernandez;
3. Berlin quarterfinal: missed four match points at 6-2 in the deciding set tiebreak, lost six consecutive points, ultimately losing 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-7(6) to Sabalenka, marking her most brutal defeat;
4. French Open fourth round: won the first set 6-1, led 2-0 in the second set, but ultimately lost 6-1, 3-6, 5-7 to Swiatek;
5. Dubai semifinal: after leading 3-1 in the deciding set, lost five consecutive games, ultimately losing 4-6, 6-4, 3-6 to Andreescu.
After the match, Rybakina's interview revealed some reasons for her defeat. When asked if she anticipated her opponent's comeback after taking the first set strongly, she admitted, "Well, of course, I know my opponent is strong. Some players often need time to adapt to my shots. I feel like the first set is always close in every match, so when my opponent doesn’t perform well at the start, everything changes."
Regarding the critical collapse in the deciding set, Rybakina pointed to her serving, especially the failure of her first serve at crucial moments: "I think she played very well at those key moments. My first serve was... from my side, I tend to rely on my second serve at those crucial moments, which certainly makes me lack confidence in the rallies because I like to control the situation. Of course, my form dipped a bit; overall, I think it was a very intense match, like a battle. So the result may not be what I wanted, but she won in the end, and I think she played very well."
This statement clearly points out her ongoing technical pain points: at crucial moments or key points under pressure, her first serve success rate drops sharply, forcing her to rely on less threatening second serves, which prevents her from dominating the offense as usual and instead puts her in a passive defense, undermining her confidence. Technical statistics also show a significant decline in her first serve percentage and scoring rate in the latter half of the deciding set and in the tiebreak.
In addition to technical factors, the overwhelming support from the Montreal home crowd for the local player also posed a significant challenge for the former Wimbledon champion. Every point scored by Mboko triggered an uproar, and even Rybakina's errors sometimes drew cheers.
In response, Rybakina appeared helpless yet understanding: "Yeah, that's certainly not good. In many cases, the crowd supports the local player, but I want to say that it has been quite difficult here from the very beginning. I felt it from the first match we played, especially during my serves. That's how it is. I expected that, and it definitely doesn't depend on my serve or my mistakes, or making wrong choices. Clearly, the crowd will cheer for their players."
Technical analyst Mark Peterson believes that in contemporary tennis, what matters most is not just the technical competition but also the psychological warfare. In this regard, Rybakina still needs to refine her skills. He commented, "The core issue with Rybakina lies in the stability of her serves at crucial points. When her first serve fails, her second serve becomes overly cautious, shallow in placement and slow in speed, making it easy for opponents, especially players like Mboko who excel at aggressive returns, to seize the opportunity to attack. This directly leads to her being put on the defensive during rallies. She needs to be able to serve quality and angled second serves under pressure."
This aspect is Rybakina's inherent "technical pain point," but it must be emphasized that the accumulated psychological pressure is also a significant factor. "Repeated collapses when close to victory undoubtedly accumulate a heavy burden psychologically. It’s like a seed that sprouts the next time she faces a similar situation—‘I lost last time, will it be the same this time?’ This self-doubt subtly affects her technical performance, especially during serves, which require absolute focus and courage. She needs professional psychological counseling to break this cycle," a netizen commented.
Recently, Rybakina's coach set the goal of "returning to world number six this year and aiming for world number one next year," but this goal sounds familiar; last year's end-of-season finals, Rybakina also proclaimed the goal of reaching world number one. However, after experiencing the gossip crisis with Vukov and changes in her team, as well as media controversies, Rybakina's ranking once fell out of the top ten, making it hard to believe the weight of this elusive slogan.
The loss in Montreal is bittersweet for Rybakina. A victory that could have been secured slipped away due to unreliable serving at crucial points and subtle fluctuations under the home crowd's noise. This once again exposed the final obstacle she needs to overcome to reach the top ranks—technical stability and psychological resilience under pressure. When will Rybakina return? Can she break her "decisive set curse"? These are focus points worth continuing to watch in the upcoming season.(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Lu Xiaotian)