Alcaraz faces the risk of losing the world No. 1 ranking in the first half of the 2026 season.

The pressure from Jannik Sinner is immense; even a single mistake could cost Carlos Alcaraz his throne.

Carlos Alcaraz will enter the 2026 season with considerable pressure weighing on him, as the threat of losing the world No. 1 spot is more apparent than ever. Although still regarded as one of the finest players of the new generation, challenges involving ranking points, form, and coaching changes could destabilize Alcaraz’s top position within the first half of the year.

Carlos Alcaraz’s immediate goal is the Australian Open, where he has never progressed beyond the quarterfinals in his career. Winning in Melbourne would not only complete his set of four Grand Slam titles but also earn crucial points to defend his No. 1 ranking. However, his toughest competitor is Jannik Sinner, who is currently in excellent form and has an impressive record at the season’s first Grand Slam.

Even if Alcaraz advances deep into the Australian Open, he will still face the pressure of defending a massive number of points in the following months. The 2003-born player must maintain his title at the ATP 500 Rotterdam Open and replicate his semifinal appearance at Indian Wells in March. In April and May, he must also defend two Masters 1000 titles in Monte Carlo and Rome, worth 2,000 points combined. Any decline in performance during this series could cause Carlitos to lose his edge in the race for the world No. 1 ranking.

Meanwhile, Sinner is poised for a strong breakthrough. Due to a suspension that caused him to miss three months last season, the Italian player has almost no points to defend at Indian Wells, Miami Masters, and Monte Carlo. This means he could accumulate up to 3,000 points in just a few major early-year tournaments, not to mention other ATP 500 events he might enter. If Sinner maintains his recent high level, the points gap with Alcaraz could close rapidly.

Another factor increasing uncertainty is that Alcaraz has just parted ways with his longtime coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. This change raises significant questions about stability during a critical phase of the season. Ferrero was not only a mentor but also played a vital role in shaping the Spanish player’s style and competitive mindset over the years.