Alcaraz's ultimate game-changer: his return of serve dominance secures year-end No.1 glory

On December 22, 2025, ATP's detailed data study examined Carlos Alcaraz's dominance on court, focusing on this young Spaniard'sultimate weapon — the return of serveAs the ATP year-end world No.1, he has led the tour for three straight seasons inreturn points won percentageand has fortified his kingly status with this signature skill.

Carlos Alcaraz has always dazzled the tennis world with his agile and versatile style and spectacular shot-making. Hidden in his arsenal is a decisive weapon: his ability to neutralize opponents’ first serves. According to ATP deep data, Alcaraz has held the top spot in return points won percentage on the ATP Tour for three consecutive years. In the 2025 season, his return points won rate reached 35%, far ahead of other top players, with only Jannik Sinner at 33.6% and Francisco Cerundolo at 33.4% trailing behind—both the only players surpassing 33%. Additionally, Damir Dzumhur and Daniil Medvedev ranked fourth and fifth with 32.8% and 32.7%, respectively.

It is well known that the first serve is a critical weapon for ATP Tour players, with most relying on high-quality serves to immediately pressure opponents and win many direct points. Even for a player as strong as Alcaraz, winning just over one-third of return points highlights the exceptional value of his lead in this statistic. At 22 years old, his 35% return points won rate in 2025 stands out distinctly among the year-end top ten, with seven of the other nine players trailing by at least 10 percentage points.

Alcaraz’s dominance in returning first serves is not a fleeting phenomenon but a long-standing advantage. Since joining the ATP Tour in 2021, the prodigy with 24 tour titles has never dropped out of the top five in return points won percentage, consistently maintaining elite performance. The past three years have been his absolute reign, as from 2023 to 2025, he led with a 35% return points won rate, more than 6 percentage points ahead of second-ranked Alex de Minaur (32.9%), who shares the mark with Daniil Medvedev. Jannik Sinner and Francisco Cerundolo are tied for fourth at 32.6%.

His return of serve performance is directly linked to his match outcomes. According to ATP win-loss index data, Alcaraz achieved an impressive 71-9 record in 2025, capturing eight titles and leading the tour in wins. Behind his few losses lies a clear pattern — his return points won rate was below his average. In seven of the nine defeats, his return points won percentage did not exceed 31%, with five matches dropping as low as 27%. The only exceptions were the Australian Open quarterfinal against Novak Djokovic and the Indian Wells semifinal against Jack Draper, where his return points won rate rebounded to 36%, returning to peak form.

From a career perspective, Alcaraz’s return of serve ability ranks among the all-time greats. In career return points won percentage rankings, Guillermo Coria leads with 36%, followed closely by Alcaraz at 34.4% in second place. Magnus Gustafsson and Rafael Nadal share third at 34.2%, while Jordi Arrese ranks fifth with 33.9%.

These statistics demonstrate that Alcaraz outperforms every player in dismantling opponents’ first serve threats. This unique dominance on the return court is not only a key reason for his second ATP year-end world No.1 title but also the core strength that will support this young Spaniard as he continues to lead through the changing tides of tennis in the 2026 season and beyond.

Sinner is currently fine-tuning his serving skills — could this be related to Alcaraz’s leading return statistics, his biggest rival?

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