Alcaraz must give his all and remain cautious if he wants to claim the year-end world No.1 title.

The 2025 ATP Turin Year-End Finals draw is out, featuring eight leading men’s tennis players split between the Jimmy Connors group and the Björn Borg group. The No.1 seed, Spain’s versatile warrior Alcaraz, along with No.4 seed Serbian star Djokovic, No.6 seed American dad Fritz, and No.7 seed Australian rising player De Minaur, will compete in the Jimmy Connors group; the Björn Borg group includes No.2 seed Italian rising star Sinner, No.3 seed German powerhouse Zverev, No.5 seed American Shelton, and either No.8 seed Canadian cool player Auger-Aliassime or Italian talent Musetti.

Alcaraz, aiming to secure the year-end world No.1 for the second time since 2022, must first perform well in the three group matches. To do so, he needs to adopt the right mindset: his opponents are not just Sinner alone, but every player across the net deserves full respect, maximum effort, and careful attention.

Alcaraz’s three group opponents represent three different scenarios. Djokovic is the king of indoor hard courts, holding a record six year-end finals titles in ATP history. The two have faced each other nine times in their careers, with Djokovic slightly ahead at five wins to four.

This season, they met twice. Djokovic, playing injured in the Australian Open quarterfinals, lost the first set but won the next three to eliminate Alcaraz; at the US Open semifinals, a rejuvenated Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in straight sets and went on to claim his second US Open and sixth Grand Slam title. Despite Djokovic’s age of 38 and physical limitations due to injuries, Alcaraz’s recent victory gives him the edge going into their group match.

Fritz excels on hard courts, even more than on grass or clay. They have met five times, with Fritz winning once and Alcaraz leading with four victories.

This season, they played three times. After Alcaraz’s 3-1 win in the Wimbledon semifinals, Fritz expressed frustration, saying in the post-match press conference, "I’d rather face Sinner than Alcaraz." Surprisingly, at the Laver Cup exhibition, Fritz swept Alcaraz in two sets, helping Team World win the title. Soon after, at the ATP 500 Tokyo final, an injured Alcaraz bounced back to beat Fritz in straight sets, leaving Fritz embarrassed. When they meet in the group stage, Alcaraz is clearly the favorite.

De Minaur is making his debut at the ATP Year-End Finals, a commendable achievement, but advancing further will be very challenging. They have played four times, with De Minaur yet to claim a win.

This season, they faced each other twice. Alcaraz won 2-1 in the ATP 500 Rotterdam final, earning his first indoor hard court title. In the ATP 500 Barcelona quarterfinals, Alcaraz defeated De Minaur in straight sets, improving their head-to-head to 4-0. Now at the Year-End Finals group stage, with Alcaraz attending for the third time and De Minaur for the second, Alcaraz should be able to dominate without giving his opponent a chance.

In summary, Alcaraz is in a strong position in the 2025 ATP Turin Year-End Finals group stage, and reaching the semifinals is realistic. However, the shocking memory of his unexpected second-round loss to veteran British player Norrie at the Paris Masters remains vivid and alarming. Therefore, both strategically and tactically, Alcaraz must take every opponent across the net seriously, commit fully, and proceed with caution.

(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Qicidoufan)