Is it a given that the China Open champion must win the season finale? Anisimova becomes the center of attention in Riyadh

Once the semifinalists for the Riyadh year-end finals were confirmed, although many thought Sabalenka and Rybakina were very likely to reach the final, some people frankly said that the forecast of a “double-B” final meeting might still change!

When the semifinalists of this year’s year-end finals were announced, bookmakers quickly published fresh odds for the upcoming two crucial matches. Although Pegula leads Rybakina 3–1 in their head-to-head record, her odds stand at 2.38 compared to the Kazakh player’s 1.53; similarly, Anisimova holds a 6–4 advantage over Sabalenka but her odds are 2.75 versus the Belarusian’s 1.4.

The public favors Sabalenka and Rybakina to meet in the final, and bookmakers’ odds strongly support these two players, seemingly conveying a simple message: it will be extremely difficult for American players Pegula and Anisimova to stop the “double-B” from reaching the final; despite their efforts, they are expected to end up as runners-up.

If judging by Sabalenka and Rybakina’s perfect 3–0 group stage records, Pegula and Anisimova’s performances do seem inferior. However, some point out that the greatest charm of competitive sports lies in its unpredictability—anything can happen during the process. Adding the China Open champion pattern, it’s not certain that Sabalenka and Rybakina will meet in the final; the ultimate outcome might disappoint those who favor the “double-B” championship and alter their predictions.

In 2023, Swiatek swept Samsonova in straight sets to win the China Open final, then moved on to the Cancun year-end finals, advancing from the group stage to the semifinals, improving steadily, and eventually defeating Pegula in straight sets to claim the title.

In 2024, American Gauff won the China Open final in straight sets against Muchova and appeared at the Riyadh year-end finals, replicating Swiatek’s feat. Gauff narrowly defeated Sabalenka in the semifinals and dominated Zheng Qinwen in the final, securing the title in a very morale-boosting way.

The China Open champions of the past two years both triumphed at the year-end finals. This year, the China Open winner Anisimova has reached the semifinals and seems to be in increasingly good form. Will she, like Swiatek and Gauff, lift the trophy at the year-end finals?

When this topic sparked heated discussion among the public, the opinions from fans and netizens were quite interesting.

Some believe it is merely a coincidence unrelated to any supposed rule that China Open champions often win the year-end finals; others argue it cannot be dismissed as pure chance, since last year Gauff’s comeback victory against Zheng Qinwen in the year-end final happened under pressure—how could such luck fall on the American without a pattern? This year, after missing the China Open title, Gauff failed even to advance from the group stage.

Moreover, some supporters of the American players feel that although bookmakers do not favor Anisimova in the odds, her head-to-head advantage over Sabalenka provides a psychological edge. Having lost to Sabalenka in the US Open final, Anisimova now has a chance to face her again at the year-end finals; no matter how much the Belarusian wants to avoid revenge, the fire of vengeance is likely already burning fiercely within Anisimova—this is what some say makes “Anisimova truly formidable.”

A clear example is that after being humiliated with a double bagel by Swiatek in the Wimbledon final, Anisimova showed a different side in both the US Open and this year’s year-end final group matches. This suggests that every loss is a lesson for her, and after careful reflection, the American player consistently demonstrates growing strength.

Therefore, whether Anisimova can impress everyone again by defeating Sabalenka in the year-end final semifinals will be the decisive factor in determining if the China Open champion winning the year-end finals is just a coincidence or a true pattern.

Some say that if Anisimova beats Sabalenka, the huge boost in confidence will make her unstoppable in the final, firmly establishing the rule that the China Open champion wins the year-end finals.

The highly anticipated match between Anisimova and Sabalenka will start no earlier than 12:10 AM Beijing time on November 8. Everyone is eagerly watching to see how the American will perform!(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Moonlit River’s Starry Sky)