2025 US Open Draw: Djokovic Faces Mixed Fortunes, Sinner and Swiatek in Same Section, Alcaraz Takes on a “Giant”

This year’s US Open draw was announced earlier than usual.

Even though the tournament hasn’t kicked off, the focus remains firmly on the top-seeded players’ draws.

The image below displays the matchups for the top eight seeds. It’s uncertain how many will secure spots in the quarterfinals. Judging by this, Zverev against Deminar has a good chance to progress, but the semifinals will be challenging. Meanwhile, Sinner’s condition is questionable, and Draper has been avoiding competition since Wimbledon, making a surprise entry at the US Open.

In the bottom half, Djokovic’s position looks favorable. If he meets Fritz, it will be their 11th encounter (head-to-head 10:0). Sheldon versus Alcaraz promises to be an exciting battle.

Let’s take a closer look at the detailed draw to examine the paths for the eight top seeds to advance.

Quarter 1: Sinner may face Bublik again

Top seed SinnerHe will face Popelin in the second round, which should be a manageable challenge. If he meets Bublik in the fourth round, that will be a significant test.

After Wimbledon, Bublik took a break following consecutive clay titles in Gstaad and Austria, withdrawing from Toronto and Cincinnati. He’s also making a surprise appearance at the US Open. Before Wimbledon, he defeated Sinner in the second round at Halle and went on to win the title. So if he faces Sinner here, he will be confident.

However, this depends on Bublik maintaining consistent form and getting past Paul in the third round first.

Fifth seed DraperHe might face Canadian player Diallo in the third round, who shows great potential. Whether Musetti or Cobolli reaches the fourth round, it will pose a considerable challenge for Draper.

Quarter 1: Zverev gets a favorable draw, can Rublev rise?

Zverev’s draw is definitely lucky, but he can’t underestimate Chilean Tabillo in the first round. The second round against Agut will test his stamina. Despite Agut’s age, his fighting spirit remains strong. The third round against Aliassime will be a moderate challenge.

RublevHe might face qualifiers consecutively. His draw couldn’t be better. If Zverev meets Rublev in the fourth round, it’s hard to predict the outcome. If the nickname “Kaspersky” still applies, it would be a good sign for Rublev’s current form.

Eighth seed DeminarMeeting Khachanov in the fourth round is very likely. It will depend on who is in better physical condition. Khachanov withdrew midway through Cincinnati; can he recover fully within a week?

Quarter 3/4: Djokovic’s biggest threat in the first round

Looking at the top eight seeds’ matchups, it seemsDjokovichas a good draw this time. He avoids Zverev in the first quarterfinal, making his path less exhausting. Facing Alcaraz in the semifinals offers better odds than playing Sinner.

However, examining the draw before the quarterfinals, it’s not entirely favorable for Djokovic.

He faces American rising star Learner Chen in the first round. The 19-year-old, ranked 48th, knocked out Rublev in the third round at Wimbledon, defeated Sheldon on grass in Mallorca, upset Zverev in Acapulco, and shocked Medvedev in the second round of the Australian Open! His baseline consistency can match Djokovic’s for 20-30 shots.

Combined with Djokovic’s tendency to start slowly in the first round, this match carries significant risk.

In the second round, Djokovic will likely face a qualifier, probably for the first time ever. This adds another layer of difficulty. The third round will probably be Korda, who is no pushover on hard courts when in form. The fourth round opponent could be Tiafoe, Van de Zandschulp, or Rune — none are easy for Djokovic.

Of course, if Djokovic still has his 2023 form, none of this will be an issue.

Fourth seed FritzCan he make it to the quarterfinals? As last year’s US Open runner-up, he must fight hard. The third round might bring Nakajima, a minor challenge. The fourth round opponent, whether Mensik or Fonseca, will be a serious test. Fritz lost to Mensik, the eventual champion, in Miami but defeated Fonseca on grass at Eastbourne. Clearly, Fonseca is more competitive on hard courts.

However, Mensik has not achieved any notable results since beating Djokovic in Miami to claim the title.

Quarter 4: Alcaraz faces an ATP “giant” in the first round

RegardingAlcarazstanding 1.83m tall, facing 2.11m tall Opelka is definitely a challenge. This test is no easier than Djokovic’s match against Learner Chen. Against such a powerful server, the best strategy is to avoid unforced errors. Currently, Alcaraz’s unforced error count is relatively high compared to his usual level. After passing the first three rounds, the fourth round against Medvedev depends on Medvedev’s form. This season, Medvedev hasn’t had the chance to compete against Sinner or Alcaraz. Their intense rivalry on hard courts has faded as Medvedev’s form declined.

Sixth seed SheltonHe faces almost no challenge in the first three rounds. The potential fourth-round opponents are Lehecka or Rune. There are hardly any dark horses. Moutet has been in good form recently, while Thompson, Griesp, and Echeverry are average.

The last Grand Slam of the 2025 season starts on August 24. Due to time differences, it’s not very convenient for Chinese fans.

Currently, the second round of qualifying has finished, with Wu Yibing advancing to the final round, having a strong chance to enter the main draw. Shang Juncheng is in the 4/4 section, facing Italian player Berrettini in the first round. If Shang performs at his best, he stands a chance. Bu Yunchaokete is in the 1/4 section and hopes to reach the second round.

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