World Cup and FIFA rankings

At SoFi Stadium on the night of June 15, when Elijah Just launched himself into a volley to give New Zealand a second lead over Iran, the crowd in Los Angeles broke into an unusual feeling: part disbelief, part witnessing a twist of fate in football. The lowest-ranked team among the 48 World Cup sides, sitting at 85th—lower than Haiti—managed to go ahead twice against a historically strong Iranian team, only to be pegged back to 2-2.

As the World Cup moves toward its final stages, at a time when fairytale stories no longer emerge, few likely remember New Zealand anymore. After the draw with Iran, New Zealand lost 1-3 to Egypt, then fell 1-5 to Belgium in their final group match. They finished bottom of Group G with just one point and a goal difference of minus 11. But now, Belgium has reached the quarterfinals, Egypt has far exceeded expectations, and Iran was only eliminated by a stroke of bad luck. That means New Zealand's performance was not that bad relative to their FIFA ranking.

This is the third time in history that New Zealand has qualified for the World Cup, following Spain 1982 and South Africa 2010. They have yet to win a single match in 10 appearances. Their highest ever FIFA ranking is 47th, achieved in 2002 after winning the Oceania Cup, but at one point in 2016, they dropped to 161st—lower than many amateur teams in Asia.

New Zealand's fluctuating FIFA ranking stems from being part of the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC). Similar to Southeast Asian football nations, their matches are mostly against regional opponents. New Zealand's dominance in OFC is not unlike Vietnam or Thailand being top dogs in Southeast Asia. Therefore, their FIFA ranking hovers around the 100 mark, and generally, this number doesn't tell the whole story.

For example, at the end of 2017, after a disappointing Confederations Cup campaign, New Zealand fell to around 121st-122nd in the world. At that time, Vietnam, despite its own sharp decline, finished the year ranked 112th, the highest in Southeast Asia. This means that during the worst period for both nations, Vietnam stood above New Zealand in the FIFA standings. Nine years later, one team is at the World Cup, while the other is preparing to defend its regional crown.

New Zealand's presence in North America this summer is partly due to the World Cup expansion from 32 to 48 teams, which granted the OFC region a direct slot for the first time in history. Under the old format, New Zealand would likely have had to play intercontinental playoffs as before. This is the common point between New Zealand and Southeast Asian football: the chance to play at the World Cup only comes when the number of teams increases. But having the opportunity is one thing; seizing it is another. What New Zealand has done at the 2026 World Cup shows they have been preparing for this for a long time.

Unlike Curacao or Cabo Verde, who reached the World Cup thanks to diaspora players born in the Netherlands or Portugal, New Zealand's squad combines domestic players with those playing abroad. Notably, their overseas players compete in various leagues—some in the Premier League, others in semi-professional English divisions or the Scottish third tier. This combination of limited external talent and low-quality competition forced New Zealand football to focus on boosting its domestic game.

Years ago, New Zealand Football (NZF) quietly operated a Talent Development Program for ages 13 to 17, redesigned nationwide to create a clear pathway from club level to the national team. The domestic top division was also forced to reform after NZF discovered a worrying fact: only 6% of playing minutes in the highest league went to players under 20. Consequently, they introduced a rule requiring at least one U20 player in the starting lineup per match—a small measure aimed directly at the biggest bottleneck of a small football nation: young talents lacking playing opportunities.

New Zealand's national league only started in 2004. By 2021, it was split into two divisions, each with just 10-11 teams. Before that, the New Zealand national team mainly drew players from US college football leagues. Through their own efforts, in a short time, the proportion of domestic-based players in the national team has reached 25%—a commendable achievement.

Many may remember that at the 2017 U20 World Cup, Vietnam drew 0-0 with New Zealand while controlling the game. Most of New Zealand's U20 players at that time were domestically based, and now, five of them have made it to the 2026 World Cup.

The path New Zealand is following may be the most relevant lesson for Vietnamese football.