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Special Contributor / Shen Mo With Colombia edging out African side Ghana 1-0, the Round of 16 field for the USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup is fully set. The tournament continues to be dominated by the traditional powerhouses of Europe and the Americas: 7 European teams, 4 South American, 3 CONCACAF, 2 African, and 0 Asian. Compared to four years ago, Europe has two fewer teams, South America has gained two, the three CONCACAF hosts all advanced thanks to home advantage, and Africa remains unchanged. The continental distribution of the Round of 16 largely reflects the true strength and performance of each region's teams, and this outcome will inevitably influence the allocation of spots for the 2030 World Cup.

With the World Cup expanded to 48 teams, the group stage may have been easier due to the eight best third-placed teams advancing, but the new Round of 32, with its single-elimination format, became a hotbed for upsets. Paraguay's penalty shootout victory over Germany is a prime example. Colombia narrowly defeated Ghana, a team ranked 60 places lower, while defending champions Argentina were pushed into extra time by Cape Verde, also ranked 60 places lower, narrowly avoiding a major shock.

Additionally, stoppage-time goals added drama to the Round of 32. Hosts Canada scored a last-minute winner against South Africa, a team ranked 30 places lower. World champions Brazil netted a stoppage-time winner against a confident Japan. Portugal did the same against Croatia. Belgium, trailing by two goals, scored twice in the final five minutes of regular time to equalize and then scored a stoppage-time winner in extra time against Senegal. Morocco equalized in stoppage time against traditional powerhouse Netherlands and advanced on penalties. Furthermore, Norway's win over Ivory Coast and England's victory over DR Congo came after trailing and staging comebacks.

The Round of 32 also served as a "challenge round" for the global football order, but unfortunately, most underdogs failed to topple the giants. Traditional favorites France, England, Spain, Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, and the host nations Canada, Mexico, and the USA all advanced smoothly. The biggest losers in the Round of 32 were Africa: 10 African teams entered, 9 made it out of the group stage (the highest rate among continents), but 7 were eliminated in the Round of 32, with only Morocco and Egypt from North Africa progressing. Senegal's loss was the most heartbreaking, as they led 2-0 before being overturned by Belgium. After the World Cup expansion, African football has been the biggest beneficiary, but the knockout stage showed they still have a way to go to challenge the traditional order of Europe and the Americas.

With the Round of 16 set, the championship paths in the upper and lower halves are becoming clearer. In the Round of 16,The standout match in the upper half is undoubtedly the "Iberian Derby" between Portugal and Spain. Together with heavy favorites France and the Belgian Red Devils, this half is dominated by European teams.Hosts Canada and the USA face tough opponents—Morocco and Belgium, both ranked in the top 10—making it difficult for them to reach the quarterfinals. Barring surprises, the favorite to come out of the upper half for a final berth will likely be among France, Spain, and Portugal.

The lower half features a strong Latin American presence with Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia. In the Round of 16, a key match is host Mexico against England.Mexico, with home advantage, presents the first real obstacle for England's title ambitions. Similarly, the Brazil vs. Norway match will be a duel between two superstar strikers: Haaland and Vinícius Junior. Argentina, in their quarterfinal bracket, faces relatively weaker opponents, making their path the easiest among the top contenders after surviving the Cape Verde scare.

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