Australia's Self-Destruction, Asian Teams Completely Eliminated

Written by Cold Ice After a 1-1 draw in regular time and a 2-4 loss in penalties, Australia was defeated by Egypt, exiting in the round of 32. This marks their third appearance in the World Cup knockout stages, all ending in failure. Australia's elimination also signals the complete removal of all Asian teams from the tournament.

In the 2014 World Cup round of 16, Netherlands coach Louis van Gaal successfully gambled by substituting his backup goalkeeper Tim Krul before the penalty shootout, who saved two penalties to help the Dutch advance to the semifinals. Four years ago, in the intercontinental playoff for the World Cup, Australia also substituted their goalkeeper before the penalty shootout and won. However, this morning, Australia again changed goalkeepers before the penalty shootout, but the substitute, "penalty specialist" Ryan, failed to save any spot-kicks, while the team missed two penalties, ultimately resulting in their elimination.

Coach Popovic took this risk based on the success from four years ago in the intercontinental playoff. Then-coach Arnold substituted Ryan for the "dancing goalkeeper" Redmayne before the penalty shootout. Redmayne was known for his constant jumping, arm-waving, and even spinning at the goal line to distract opponents. While Ryan was also good at saving penalties, opponents had some understanding of his saving habits. Arnold aimed to catch the opposition off guard. He secretly prepared for six weeks, keeping the plan hidden even from Ryan.

Redmayne not only used distracting movements to unsettle the Peruvian penalty takers but also secretly moved the water bottle of Peruvian goalkeeper Gallese, which had notes on the penalty habits of Australian players. As a result, Peru missed two penalties, with Advíncula missing the first and Barrella's shot saved by Redmayne, securing Australia's fifth consecutive World Cup qualification.

This morning at Arlington, the Socceroos conceded a goal just 14 minutes into the match. In the 54th minute, they forced an own goal from Egyptian defender Hani Artam during a free-kick, leveling the score. The match went to extra time, but no further goals were scored, leading to a penalty shootout.

Popovic, following the examples of van Gaal and Arnold, substituted Ryan before the shootout. Since 2012, Ryan has faced 30 penalties in his career and saved 12, a success rate of 40%. In June last year, during the Asian World Cup qualifiers, he saved a last-minute penalty from Salem Al-Dawsari in Australia's away match against Saudi Arabia, ensuring a three-point victory. In the 2019 Asian Cup round of 16 against Uzbekistan, he saved two penalties during the shootout, helping Australia advance to the quarterfinals. Earlier this year, in La Liga, he also saved penalties from Kylian Mbappé and Romero.

When Ryan entered the match, the Egyptian coaching staff was unprepared. They scrambled to find a video of Ryan saving Mbappé's penalty for the team to quickly study. Psychologically, Australia had the advantage, but Popovic overlooked another decisive factor in penalty shootouts: his own penalty takers. Twelve years ago, besides Krul's heroics, the Netherlands' first four penalty takers—van Persie, Robben, Sneijder, and Kuyt—were all experienced strikers who converted their penalties. Four years ago, in Australia's victory over Peru, apart from midfielder Aaron Mooy, the other five penalty takers were also skilled forwards.

This time, Popovic's first four penalty takers included only one forward, Mabil. The first penalty taker, defender Souttar, missed the target. The most baffling choice was the fourth penalty taker, 18-year-old defender Herrington. With Finnish, German, and Zimbabwean heritage, Herrington made his national team debut only this year. Lacking experience and under immense pressure, his penalty hit the post, ending Australia's hopes of reaching the round of 16. Ryan failed to save any penalties and was even deceived by Salah's cheeky chipped shot.

Unlike van Gaal and Arnold, Popovic admitted after the match that the goalkeeper substitution was a last-minute decision. He only realized during the final moments of extra time that a substitution was possible and felt Ryan was a better penalty saver than starting goalkeeper Beich.

Just like Ryan four years ago, Beich only learned he would miss the penalty shootout when the substitution was displayed on the big screen, moments after he had just saved a goal-scoring opportunity for Egypt. Popovic is known for frequent substitutions, but in this match, he fielded the same starting eleven for the first time in 22 games as head coach. However, he still made the most unlikely substitution—the goalkeeper—replacing Beich with Ryan, who had not played a single minute in the match.

Despite midfielder Irvine revealing after the match that the penalty taker list was already determined and that all takers had undergone extra practice, Australian media and fans demanded an explanation from Popovic for such a hasty arrangement. Former Australian women's team legend Walsh expressed disbelief at the decision to have two defenders take penalties. Australian media criticized the lack of prior preparation for such a crucial tactical change, calling it absurd. The inappropriate choice of penalty takers, combined with the flawed substitution, resulted in Australia's elimination.

With Australia's elimination, all nine Asian teams in the 2026 World Cup have failed to advance to the round of 16. Four years ago in Qatar, Japan, South Korea, and Australia all reached the knockout stages. The last time no Asian team advanced was at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Thirty-two years ago, the last time the U.S. hosted the World Cup, only two Asian teams participated, with Saudi Arabia reaching the round of 16. Now, with nine teams competing, the complete elimination of all Asian teams is a disappointing outcome.