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Champions League knockout draw, how does AI fight conspiracy theories?

The reporter reported coldly This season, UEFA has implemented a new version of the Champions League, in addition to expanding the number of matches and adopting a "pseudo-Swiss round" system, the most controversial is the new rules for the draw. After the huge controversy caused by the draw in the league stage last summer, the draw for the 1/8 finals that just concluded continues to attract widespread doubts. The abolition of the principle of avoidance of teams in the same league and the strict restriction of the scope of opponents in the draw have made the draw lose the suspense of the past and create more "manipulation" suspicions.


The new version of the Champions League used artificial intelligence to intervene in depth at the beginning of the league stage draw last year, but the "2 to 1" opponents in the knockout draw led to a significant decrease in the range of choices, and the question that the draw results were "manipulated" still exists. Too few opponents to choose from, too many teams in the same league in the same half, and no longer have another draw for the quarter-finals, all make the new Champions League 1/8 final draw unconvincing. The conspiracy theory of "manipulating the results" caused by purely manual draws in the past has also not disappeared due to the change of the new version of the Champions League draw rules.

A sense of suspense that is stripped away


When the draw for the new Champions League was drawn last summer, the football world was curious about the draw for the new Swiss round format. But it was completely different from the suspense created by the previous guests stirring the white ball and revealing the note, when the lottery guest Cristiano Ronaldo stood bored for 1 hour and only pressed the football-shaped button 36 times. Buffon, who is still stirring the ball and showing the note, has a sense of participation, but Ronaldo's boring actions more reflect the alienation of the artificial intelligence of the new competition system.


The same is true for the new version of the Champions League 1/8 final draw, compared with the old version of the Champions League draw, the draw rules of the new Champions League greatly reduce the diversity and randomness of the draw opponents. Last season's Champions League 1/8 final draw as an example, excluding the principle of avoiding teams in the same league and the same group in the group stage, the opponents of the seeded team can have up to 7 choices, and the suspense and drama of the draw result are full. Now UEFA has removed the two principles of avoiding teams in the same league and against previous teams, but the number of potential opponents of seeded teams has not increased, but has decreased significantly.


As the new Champions League knockout draw is based on the ranking of teams at the league stage, to ensure that the higher ranked teams play the lower teams as much as possible, the 8 seeded teams and 8 unseeded teams are divided into four divisions, and each seeded team can choose up to 7 opponents from the old version, which has been sharply reduced to only two today. The new draw starts at the play-offs, for example, the 9th/10th seeded team in the Champions League can only play the 23rd/24th best team in the league, the 11th/12th seeded team can only play 21/22nd, and so on.


The same goes for the draw for the 1/8 finals: the 1/2 seeded team in the Champions League can only play the winner of the 15th/16th seeded team with the lowest ranking in the play-off league. The 3rd/4th seeded team in the league will play the winner of the 13th/14th seeded team in the second-bottom play-off league, and so on. The same principle of drawing lots is also used for quarter-finals and semi-finals, which ultimately leads to the suspense of the old Champions League quarter-finals to determine opponents and divisions.

New draw prompts new 'conspiracy theories'


Originally, UEFA could be divided into 8 seeded and unseeded teams according to the league ranking, as in the old version, and adhered to the principle of avoiding the same country and the league stage, so as to increase the randomness and suspense of the draw results. Now, such a principle of drawing lots according to the league rankings has not only almost exhausted the suspense of the draw results, but also increased the speculation of the outside world about UEFA's "conspiracy theory" manipulation of the draw results.


As early as the draws for the play-offs, Manchester City's opponents, who are unseeded teams, have decided that Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will choose 1 out of 2. Similarly, Serie A and Eredivisie teams faced each other, and managed to avoid an early meeting between Milan and Juventus in the play-offs. The only opponents in Paris are Monaco and Brest, and the giants of the French capital drew the weaker dark horse Brest as they wished.


Three English teams and three German teams are concentrated in one semi-zone, and there are strong "conspiracy theories" among media and fans in both countries that UEFA does not want Premier League or German teams to meet in the final. The old version of the Champions League 1/8 final draw has the principle of avoiding teams in the same league, and the new version of the Champions League 1/8 final has a 50% probability of encountering a team in the league, and the Madrid derby and the German domestic war in the third division finally hit both sides. There is also a 50% probability that three English teams will be in the same half of the zone, and a 25% chance that three German teams will be in the same half. At the same time, the probability of dividing Real Madrid and Barcelona in the two halves is also 50%. The coincidence of all three of the above cases is difficult to explain with random probability.


The new version of the Champions League knockout draw is not much different from the old version, but the forced locking of the four draw zones with high against low does greatly increase the possibility of manipulating the results. After all, in the previous era of the "7 out of 1" draw, former FIFA President Seppat publicly disclosed in an interview with the Argentine newspaper "El Nacional": UEFA sets different temperatures for the draw ball to ensure the expected draw result. Ronaldo and Zanetti, the guests of the draw, have had suspicious actions of taking out the ball and putting it back back after stirring it, which has increased the suspicion of the "conspiracy theory" of manipulating the game.


The new version of the Champions League knockout draw, instead of increasing the randomness and suspense of the draw results, makes the draw more "stylized", which is naturally criticized. The new version of the Champions League will definitely not be considered a success, at least in the principle of the knockout draw.



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