Weekend Cafe: Arsenal don't blame fate!

Whenever... close to success, people often immediately find spiritual reasons to blame, saying fate is teasing, destiny hasn't arrived, or heaven doesn't favor them.

1. A win against Bournemouth would help Arsenal lead by 12 points, at least temporarily. At this late stage, that is an absolute advantage, even if Manchester City still has 2 games left.

The remainder of the season could become a stroll. But that stroll should have already begun. Usually, with a gap of up to 9 points near the end of the season, a true champion wouldn't have any reason to be nervous: a gap of up to 3 wins is a very solid advantage.

Instead, Arsenal lost 1-2, after a disappointing performance. This was also their third consecutive loss in the Premier League, causing the trophy that seemed already in their pocket to slip away.

What's notable is that the loss unfolded with a scenario similar to what they've shown this season: Arsenal fell behind, but an opponent's mistake (Bournemouth conceding a penalty) brought the opportunity back. And the final answer was still bitter: Arsenal didn't deserve even 1 point from this match. Bournemouth pressed and convincingly secured the result.

There's something like fate arranging it. This loss came exactly in the round where Arsenal lost to Aston Villa at home in 2024. Those three dropped points ultimately became the difference between champion and runner-up, and the ghost is returning.

2. Arsenal must wait for favor from Chelsea, who host Manchester City at Stamford Bridge a day later. What's notable is that at this moment, they don't look like a team capable of winning the championship by their own strength.

If they win all remaining matches, Arsenal will accumulate 88 points total. In Premier League history, that is the number… barely the minimum a club needs to win (87.8). Over the past decade, this average has risen to 89 - 91.2 points, after Pep Guardiola took over Man City.

Even in that "dream" scenario, Arsenal would only achieve 18 wins, and they would become the champion with the fewest wins in Premier League history (the current "record holder" is MU in 1996/1997 with 21 wins). That means even with a strong revival and perfect play from now until the season ends, Arsenal likely still remains the worst champion in many years.

The reality is that their top position might also be a lie: Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea have all declined and made many mistakes this season, allowing Arsenal to gain a significant advantage only through better free kicks and more disciplined defense. They couldn't press opponents and seize their own chances when the situation forced them to.

Try shifting perspective to Man City's side, to see that they are also facing a not easy situation: Even if they defeat Chelsea and Arsenal in direct confrontations, Guardiola's team would still trail the Gunners by 3 points despite having 1 game in hand.

In case the two teams are tied on points, Arsenal's goal difference advantage is still superior. Calculating back and forth, Arsenal cannot let slip this golden opportunity.

But the context here is that Mikel Arteta's team finished second in the last three seasons, even after leading very early. In the 2022/23 season, they lost an 8-point advantage after 29 rounds. And now, once again, the huge natural advantage has evaporated in a very short time.

This reality has stripped away a "privilege" of Arsenal: They no longer have any excuse to blame anything, whether spiritual or objective reasons, to justify losing the championship. If they cannot win this season, the whole team can only look each other in the eye and admit that their level and mentality are truly insufficient to claim the crown, under any circumstances.

And not winning might even be a blessing: Arsenal would have a reason to look squarely at themselves, instead of continuing to be lulled. Now, the most terrible poison could be… a championship. If they crawl to the finish line like this, the new season could even be the start of a much bigger collapse.