Supercomputer predicts surprising outcome for Arsenal vs Man City in Carabao Cup final

Opta's supercomputer has delivered predictions and significant statistics concerning the clash between Arsenal and Man City in the 2025/26 Carabao Cup final.

Arsenal and Man City are facing the opportunity to secure the first trophy of the 2025/26 season as they meet in the Carabao Cup final. With impressive recent form, Arsenal is rated slightly higher than the Manchester representative.

Specifically, according to the supercomputer Opta, "The Gunners" are predicted to have 51.1% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Man City only has 24.8% probability of winning based on 10,000 scenarios generated by the model. The likelihood of a draw, meaning the match would proceed to extra time or even a penalty shootout, accounts for 23.3%.

However, Pep Guardiola's squad receives support from historical precedent.

According to statistics from Opta, Mikel Arteta has only secured 3 wins in 16 encounters with Guardiola, while Pep has won all 4 Carabao Cup finals he has led, consecutively from the 2017/18 to 2020/21 seasons. To date, no manager has ever claimed this trophy five times.

Arsenal currently holds a 6-match unbeaten streak against Man City across all competitions, with 2 wins and 4 draws, completely opposite to the previous period when they lost 15 out of 16 meetings, winning only once.

Nevertheless, in the tournament's history, Man City clearly holds the advantage, having won the last 4 meetings against Arsenal with an aggregate score of 11-1. The last time the Manchester blues lost to this opponent in the competition was in the third round of the 2004/05 season, with a 1-2 score.

At Wembley, Arsenal has a fairly positive record, losing only 1 out of 5 encounters with Man City, securing 3 wins and 1 draw. However, that sole defeat was precisely the Carabao Cup final in 2018, when they lost 0-3.

Before the final, Man City is facing considerable pressure following their midweek defeat to Real Madrid, thereby officially exiting the Champions League. Additionally, Arsenal widening the gap in the Premier League title race has also placed Pep Guardiola's team in a disadvantageous position.

Therefore, the showdown at Wembley is seen as an opportunity for Man City to regain momentum with a trophy, while building morale before returning to the remaining domestic season fixtures.

On the other side, Arsenal still harbors hopes of achieving a quadruple. The Carabao Cup could become the first trophy conquered by the London representative, as they hold strong advantages in both the Premier League and Champions League.

Defeating Man City is undoubtedly the goal that Mikel Arteta and his pupils aim for, thereby creating a stepping stone to move closer to major trophies in the remainder of the season.

The Carabao Cup final will take place at 23:30 tomorrow night (22/3).