Zhan Jun's analysis on Champions League quarter-final advancement: Liverpool only 30%, Real Madrid tougher without Courtois, Arsenal steady

After the Champions League quarter-final fixtures were released, foreign media Score90 provided the probabilities for each team to reach the semi-finals:Real Madrid 39%, Bayern 61%, Paris 56%, Liverpool 44%, Barcelona 66%, Atletico Madrid 34%, Arsenal 81%, Sporting Portugal 19%.

Premier League commentator Zhan Jun offered a different perspective, stating:

• Real Madrid vs Bayern: Real Madrid missing injured Courtois makes advancement more difficult, implying Bayern is favored to reach the Champions League semi-finals!
• Paris vs Liverpool: Champions League defending champion Paris is gradually regaining strength, while Liverpool's form is unstable, fluctuating greatly, and facing three competitions, leading to high fatigue; Liverpool's chance of advancing is only around 30%. Zhan Jun is a Liverpool loyalist, here also somewhat "boosting" Paris.
• Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: The La Liga clash in the Champions League quarter-finals, plus La Liga matchday 30, means both teams play three times in ten days, creating many variables, especially in cup matches; Barcelona's probability might be just 55%!
• Arsenal vs Sporting Portugal: Arsenal has a strong chance to advance to the Champions League semi-finals, but Arsenal must be cautious of Sporting Portugal's home advantage in the first leg away match.

Which four teams do you think will advance to the Champions League semi-finals? Share your predictions!