Not Real or Arsenal, supercomputer directly points to Champions League champion

Opta's supercomputer has updated its latest prediction for the Champions League, with Bayern Munich unexpectedly rising to lead the list of title contenders, surpassing Arsenal, Barcelona, and Real Madrid.

The race for the Champions League title in the 2025/26 season has seen significant shifts following the round of 16 matches. According to the latest update from Opta's supercomputer, Bayern Munich is now rated as the top contender for the championship, surpassing major names like Arsenal and Real Madrid.

Previously, Arsenal was once rated by Opta as the team with the highest chance of winning. However, the 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg of the round of 16 significantly reduced the London club's opportunities. Arsenal's championship probability dropped from 26.7% before the match to 22.07%, causing them to lose the leading position.

Meanwhile, Bayern Munich seized the opportunity to climb to the top of the prediction table. The German team holds a very significant advantage after a decisive 6-1 victory over Atalanta in the first leg. This result helps Bayern, according to Opta's supercomputer, to have a 26.34% chance of winning this season's Champions League title.

Statistics also show that Bayern is having a much smoother journey than other opponents in the knockout rounds. With a large lead over Atalanta, the Bundesliga representative has almost secured a spot in the quarter-finals, thereby significantly increasing its probability of advancing deep in the tournament.

Besides Bayern and Arsenal, several other major clubs are also among the top contenders. Barcelona is rated by Opta to have a 12.10% chance of winning, while Paris Saint-Germain reaches 10.17%. Real Madrid, after a 3-0 victory over Manchester City at the Bernabeu, also rejoins the race with a probability of 8.34%.

The impressive victory over Man City significantly changed Real Madrid's position in the supercomputer's prediction. Just a week earlier, the team under coach Alvaro Arbeloa was nearly eliminated from the contender list, with its championship chance rated near zero. However, the convincing performance at the Bernabeu quickly helped them return to the group of five teams with the highest likelihood of winning.

According to Opta's calculations, Real Madrid currently has a 33.13% chance of reaching the semi-finals and an 18.21% chance of making the final. If they overcome Manchester City in the round of 16, their next opponent is likely to be Bayern Munich, the team currently rated highest for the championship.

Meanwhile, English clubs experienced a forgettable week in the Champions League. All six Premier League representatives participating in the tournament failed to secure victories in the recent matches. Newcastle drew with Barcelona, Arsenal drew with Leverkusen, Liverpool lost to Galatasaray, while Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester City all suffered defeats.

These results caused the championship chances of many English clubs to sharply decline. Manchester City now only has a 2.27% chance of winning after the heavy defeat against Real Madrid. Liverpool is also rated to have only a 4.46% chance of winning, despite still having the second leg at Anfield.

With continuous fluctuations following the round of 16, Opta's supercomputer prediction shows Bayern Munich is currently the brightest contender for the Champions League title. However, as the tournament still has many rounds ahead, any unexpected scenarios could still occur.