Pre-match and post-match qualification probabilities reversed; a winning hand played disastrously by Guardiola; Haaland is overrated.

In the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals, Real Madrid, despite a season of poor form and a severe injury crisis, swept Manchester City 3-0 at home. If Vinicius hadn't missed a penalty, Real Madrid would have been celebrating their advance to the Champions League quarter-finals early. Did you know that? Before the match, media and fans unanimously believed Manchester City would qualify, aiming to strike while the opponent was weak. Yet, a winning hand was played disastrously by Guardiola, and Haaland, the world's most valuable striker, is severely overrated—the "monster" only excels against weaker sides and disappears in high-stakes clashes.

Score90 compared the qualification probabilities for Real Madrid vs. Manchester City before the first leg and now:

• Pre-match: Manchester City's qualification probability was as high as 72%, while Real Madrid was only 28%.
• Post-match: Manchester City's qualification probability plummeted to 17%, while Real Madrid rose to 83%.

Personal view: if Guardiola had chosen a counter-attacking strategy at the Bernabéu, he could at least have kept Manchester City unbeaten! Multiple实战证明 that using Haaland in tough, hard-fought battles等于 playing with one man less; it's better to use a false-nine formation. Playing with a single pivot against strong teams often leads to collapse for Manchester City, plus Rodri is no longer the Ballon d'Or-level midfielder he was before his major injury—one man cannot cover the entire midfield. Also, Savinho cannot perform in high-level matches; like Haaland, he is purely a player for dominating weaker opponents and肯定会 become a lost lamb in强强对话. Manchester City fears counter-attacks, and Guardiola has no solution for this—even against Premier League relegation teams this season, Manchester City has managed only one draw and one loss with no wins. Real Madrid's counter-attacks are sharp. If Manchester City stops at the Champions League quarter-finals, Guardiola must bear full responsibility. In fact, Manchester City should have changed coaches after last season; Guardiola can no lead the team to further progress. De Bruyne's departure, Guardiola's迷信 in Haaland and selling Álvarez have already set Manchester City on a downward path that cannot be stopped. After losing 3-0 to a depleted Real Madrid, Guardiola's Manchester City will continue to fear counter-attacks; every team knows how to deal with them. Haaland is severely overrated; the "monster" is far不及 the "little spider" (Álvarez).