This weekend's Milan derby: A battle without "gunfire"?

The first leg of the Milan-Inter clash saw only one goal scored. A similar drought could be repeated in this weekend's return leg, based on the concerning offensive situation of both sides.

In the early hours of yesterday, during the goalless first leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final at Como, Inter Milan registered no more than three shots in a match for the first time in exactly eight years (since the match against Napoli on March 11, 2018). This is unusual for the team with the most shots (501) and the most goals scored (61, excluding own goals) in Serie A this season.

Inter also have striker issues

Cristian Chivu is certainly the Serie A manager happiest when it comes to the quantity and quality of his attacking options. All four of Inter's strikers are highly rated, rarely injured, effective, and reliable. Lautaro Martinez (14 goals), Marcus Thuram (7), Ange-Yoan Bonny (5), and Pio Esposito (4) have scored a total of 30 goals, matching or exceeding the tally of nine other teams. Across all competitions, this "atomic quartet" has combined for 44 goals since the start of the season, making them the dream forward line for any manager worldwide.

However, in the upcoming derby, it's very likely Chivu will only be able to use two of those four attackers. Captain Lautaro is definitely out (he might return for the Lazio match on March 22nd) while Bonny suffered a hamstring injury against Genoa and is unlikely to recover in time. With Inter's almost unchangeable 3-5-2 formation over the past five years, having only two fit strikers means no backup options or tactical attacking changes. Chivu fielded Inter with just one striker (Esposito starting, Thuram coming on) for the full 90 minutes at Como, and the consequence was Inter posing almost no threat to the hosts. That was clearly a failed experiment, even if Inter's primary objective in that match was to preserve their squad rather than score.

Not just lacking, but also weak. The absence of Lautaro - the league's top scorer, and Bonny - the second most efficient scorer in terms of minutes per goal (135.2 minutes/goal), strips Inter's attack of roughly 70% of its firepower. Thuram is not a poor player and has shone in derbies before, but his form has dipped. He has scored only one goal in his last 14 matches. Pio Esposito probably lacks the experience for a big game like this.

Milan's inherent weakness

In contrast to Chivu, Milan's manager Max Allegri has never had reason to smile when looking at his consistently unstable attack. Santi Gimenez, theoretically the main striker, has been out since October 2025 and hasn't scored in Serie A this season. The star duo Rafael Leao (9 goals) and Christian Pulisic (8) aren't bad on paper, but that's just theory. They have never been a proper attacking partnership, having started together only 4 times this season and sharing the pitch for less than 500 minutes. Besides frequent injuries causing regular absences, the form of both is currently very poor. In last weekend's match against Cremonese, they both missed clear chances, showing no readiness for the big clash against Inter.

Meanwhile, Christopher Nkunku and Niclas Fullkrug are only Plan B options in Allegri's plans and have also failed to meet expectations. The unreliability of the attack is a major reason why Milan's play has become more defensive and pragmatic. According to a recent report by the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES), Milan rank 96th out of 96 clubs from Europe's top five leagues in pressing intensity, a very surprising result (Como leads and Inter ranks 11th). Regardless of the opponent, Milan play with a very deep line, a style that often causes them trouble against smaller teams that also focus on defending.

Inter's lack of strikers and Milan having quantity but lacking quality does not promise a goal fest in the derby. But it must be reiterated that goals don't only come from the forwards. 31 of Inter's 61 goals have been scored by players from deeper positions, particularly from Hakan Calhanoglu's long-range and set-piece prowess (8 goals) or Federico Dimarco's thunderous angled shots (6 goals). 19 of Milan's 41 goals have not come from their forwards, thanks to the attacking contributions of center-back Strahinja Pavlovic (3 goals) or the game-changing ability of Adrien Rabiot (4 goals).

Therefore, the return leg derby can still be expected to produce more than just the single goal seen in the first leg.