Iran is in danger of forfeiting a very large financial reward if it chooses to boycott the 2026 World Cup.
According to the Associated Press, all teams participating in the World Cup are guaranteed a fixed bonus, regardless of performance. Specifically, teams eliminated in the group stage will receive a $9 million bonus, plus $1.5 million in preparation cost support. This means if Iran does not participate in World Cup 2026, they could lose at least $10.5 million.
World Cup 2026 will be hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico, marking the first time the tournament will feature 48 teams. Iran had previously qualified for the finals and was drawn into Group G alongside opponents Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand.
In the event Iran withdraws or is banned from participating, FIFA regulations state they will be replaced by "a designated standby team, typically the runner-up from the relevant playoff or the highest-ranked team from that confederation not already qualified."
This implies that the UAE or Iraq would likely be awarded the spot, as Iraq defeated the UAE to advance to the intercontinental playoff. However, Iraq's intercontinental playoff match against Mexico is scheduled for March 31, which could create timing difficulties for FIFA if a swift decision is required.
FIFA's regulations on withdrawal state that the world football governing body "has full discretion on the matter and may take any measure deemed necessary." Therefore, FIFA President Gianni Infantino could be instrumental in determining any sanctions against Iran.
Additionally, a fine of $321,000 may be applied if Iran withdraws within 30 days before the tournament begins. This fine would double to $642,000 if the decision is made prior to the 30-day mark.