Champions League Round of 16 set, Atalanta remains Serie A's last hope

By Han Bing Following the conclusion of the Champions League knockout play-offs, the 16 teams advancing have been finalized. The key spotlight on the second matchday’s four games was whether Serie A could save face and prevent the shame of all its teams being eliminated from the last 16 for the first time since the 1992/93 Champions League expansion. Juventus, despite leveling the aggregate score 3-3 in regular time, ultimately failed to change Serie A’s European fate; playing with one less player, they conceded two goals in extra time to Galatasaray and were knocked out. Fortunately, Atalanta showed resilience, winning 4-1 at home against Dortmund, overturning a 0-2 away first-leg deficit, becoming Serie A’s sole representative in the Champions League Round of 16.

With this, the full lineup for this season’s Champions League Round of 16 is complete. All six English Premier League teams have advanced, showcasing unprecedented group dominance. The record for the most teams from a single league in the last 16 was also set by the Premier League in the 2017/18 season, when all five participating teams reached the Round of 16. After the knockout play-offs, the Premier League’s coefficient points reached 112.741, vastly ahead of second-placed Serie A’s 97.803 by 14.938 points. Moreover, not only have all six Premier League teams reached the Round of 16, but all nine English teams competing across Europe’s three major tournaments remain active. This season alone, English clubs have earned 5.045 more coefficient points than Serie A, which now only has Atalanta left in the Champions League, and just four out of seven teams remain in the three major cups, signaling a widening gap in future rankings.

After Inter Milan was eliminated by this season’s biggest Champions League dark horse Bodo/Glimt with a double defeat, Italian media and fans have focused their attention on Juventus and Atalanta. However, Juventus suffered a humiliating 2-5 loss away to Galatasaray in the first leg, while Atalanta lost 0-2 away to Dortmund, making their home comebacks extremely challenging.

The team with the highest expectations, Juventus, faced an almost impossible challenge in overturning Serie A’s European history: Italian clubs have never recovered from conceding five or more goals in the first leg of a knockout tie to advance in the second leg. Previous cases include Lazio’s 2-5 loss to Valencia in the 2000 quarterfinal first leg (followed by a 1-0 win), Inter Milan’s 2-5 loss to Schalke 04 in the 2011 quarterfinal first leg (followed by a 1-2 loss), Roma’s 2-5 defeat to Liverpool in the 2018 semifinal first leg (followed by a 4-2 win), and Roma’s 2-6 loss to Manchester United in the 2021 Europa League semifinal first leg (followed by a 2-3 loss).

This time Juventus nearly made history: Locatelli opened the scoring in the first half, and after Kelly received a red card in the 49th minute, the ten-man Bianconeri were actually galvanized. Gatti and McKennie scored successively, pushing the match into extra time. Unfortunately, due to the numerical disadvantage and fatigue, they conceded goals from Osimhen and Yilmaz in extra time. Despite winning the match 3-2, Juventus was eliminated on aggregate.

Following last season’s extra-time elimination by PSV Eindhoven, Juventus has now missed the Champions League Round of 16 for two consecutive seasons. The Bianconeri last reached the Round of 16 in the 2021/22 season and have failed to advance in all three Champions League appearances over the past four seasons. In contrast, Atalanta was luckier: in the 7th minute of added time, Dortmund’s Bensebaini was sent off for an accumulated yellow card, and Samardžić converted the penalty to send Atalanta through to the last 16.

Last season, only one of the five Serie A teams—Inter Milan—advanced to the Round of 16, and this season it’s the same. Since the 1996/97 season when Serie A first had two or more teams participating, there have been six seasons in the last 20 where only one team reached the Round of 16. The glory of all four Serie A teams reaching the last 16 in 2002/03 is gone. In 2022/23 and 2023/24, Serie A had three teams in the Round of 16, but the league has declined sharply in the last two seasons. Last season Inter’s run to the final masked the decline; this season, only Atalanta has preserved Serie A’s honor.

This season’s Champions League Round of 16 landscape shows the Premier League far ahead, with only the Spanish “big three” advancing from Europe’s top four leagues. The Bundesliga has two teams (Bayern and Leverkusen) close behind, while Serie A and Ligue 1 each have only one representative. The number of Premier League teams in the last 16 nearly matches the total from the other four major leagues combined. Additionally, five of the six English teams qualified directly from the league stage; the only team in the knockout play-offs, Newcastle United, had a favorable draw and easily defeated Azerbaijani dark horse Qarabağ to advance.

Outside the big five leagues, three teams reached the last 16: Sporting CP qualified directly, while Galatasaray and Bodo/Glimt impressed by eliminating Italian giants Juventus and Inter Milan respectively. Although the total number (three) is one less than last season, Bodo/Glimt’s remarkable four consecutive wins over big clubs from the top four leagues justify their place in the last 16. Since Mourinho led Porto to the title in 2003/04, the best performances by teams outside the big five have been semifinals — achieved by Dutch clubs PSV Eindhoven (2004/05) and Ajax (2018/19). The best results for Turkish and Portuguese clubs have only been quarterfinal appearances.

Since the Champions League reform, the best performances by Nordic teams date further back: Sweden’s Göteborg (1995/96) and Norway’s Rosenborg (1996/97) reached the quarterfinals. Apart from Bodo/Glimt, the other 12 Nordic teams that have participated failed in three previous quarterfinal attempts by Rosenborg (1999/2000) and Copenhagen (2010/11 and 2023/24). Whether Bodo/Glimt can at least match the best Nordic Champions League result might hinge on Friday’s Round of 16 draw at 19:00 Beijing time. Among their potential opponents, Bodo/Glimt defeated Manchester City in the group stage, while Sporting CP is not among the elite, providing a favorable draw that could help Bodo/Glimt continue their dark horse journey.