Supercomputer predicts a surprising outcome for the Real Madrid vs Benfica match

Even without their main forward Kylian Mbappe at the last moment, Real Madrid is considered by the Opta supercomputer to have a strong advantage to crush Benfica’s hopes on their home ground, Santiago Bernabeu.

The Champions League playoff second leg between Real Madrid and Benfica is not only a battle for a spot in the round of 16 but also the focus of controversies and rivalry. The 1-0 away win in Portugal gave Alvaro Arbeloa’s team a slim yet crucial advantage.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Real Madrid is the favorite with a winning probability of 61%. The Spanish side’s chance to advance has been raised to 86.7%, far surpassing the modest 13.3% chance of Benfica.

History also favors the home team. In the last 23 occasions when they won the first leg in knockout rounds, Real Madrid advanced 22 times. Moreover, Santiago Bernabeu remains a solid fortress; they are on the verge of setting a record with 116 clean sheets in the Champions League, surpassing Bayern Munich. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois needs just one more clean sheet to equal the legend Dida’s record of 34 shutouts in the competition’s history.

Real Madrid’s joy is tempered by recent news confirming Kylian Mbappe has a left knee injury and will be absent. This is a huge blow since the French forward has contributed to 14 goals in this season’s Champions League.

Without Mbappe, the goal-scoring responsibility falls on Vinicius Junior — who scored the only goal in the first leg and was also involved in a racial abuse incident with Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni (currently suspended by UEFA).

On the other side, Jose Mourinho faces a poor streak: nine consecutive knockout matches without a win in the Champions League. The "Special One" will have to coach from the stands due to suspension, while Benfica has only once in its history overturned a first-leg home loss in European competition.

Although Benfica pulled off a "miracle" 4-2 victory over Real in late January, facing a seasoned squad like Real Madrid at Bernabeu presents a completely different challenge. Opta assigns only a 19.1%. chance of victory for the Portuguese side.

Expected lineups and squad status

• Real Madrid: Missing Jude Bellingham, Eder Militao, and Kylian Mbappe (injuries).

• Benfica: Absent Gianluca Prestianni (suspension) and Joao Veloso (injury).

This match will go down in history as the first time these two teams meet three times consecutively in the same Champions League season. A draw (with a probability of 19.9%) is enough for Real Madrid to advance, but with their home tradition, Los Blancos surely aim for a convincing win to affirm their kingly status.