Guardiola has hit a bottleneck; Manchester City has fallen from Premier League four-time champions to the kings of dropping points, losing 9 points in the last 5 matches.

Guardiola is undoubtedly one of the top two active managers in football, having led Manchester City to a Champions League title and achieved the remarkable feat of four consecutive Premier League titles. However, his current Manchester City team is facing a significant bottleneck. The club remains the same heavy spender in the transfer market, but Guardiola's magic seems to have faded.

In the 24th round of the Premier League, Manchester City led 2-0 at halftime but conceded two goals in the second half, ending in a 2-2 draw away against Tottenham. They dropped points again and fell 6 points behind Arsenal with a 3-goal deficit in goal difference, falling behind in the title race this season once more.

Since the second half of this Premier League season began, from round 20 to round 24, Manchester City's record over the last 5 matches is 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, dropping a total of 9 points. Arsenal leads by 6 points not because the Gunners are exceptionally strong—they have also slipped up frequently—but Manchester City has been even more prone to dropping points.

Over the past seven seasons, Manchester City has won the Premier League title six times. Guardiola’s Blue Moon squad is famously unstoppable in their title charge during the latter half of the season. In the past, Manchester City has hadonly dropped 3 points in 19 matches (2018-19 season)andonly dropped 6 points in 19 matches (2023-24 season)a remarkable point-gathering achievement, snatching the Premier League title away from their rivals. But now, Manchester City has become the kings of dropping points!

Why has Manchester City gone from relentlessly gaining points in the second half of the season to now frequently dropping them?The main responsibility lies with Guardiola. Why is this said? Because Guardiola puts too much faith in Haaland. The Norwegian striker struggles in big matches and can’t provide crucial support when needed; he mostly adds value when things are already going well. Haaland lacks the ability to hold up the ball and drive play forward, and his heading is not top-class for a center forward. His long legs suit counter-attacking with space, but Manchester City mostly plays breaking down defenses. Haaland hasn’t scored a league goal from open play for a long time recently. Guardiola’s trust in Haaland and selling Alvarez was his biggest mistake. Alvarez’s ball progression, long-range shooting, and creativity are exactly what this Manchester City team desperately needs. Additionally, Guardiola still relies on possession football, but without De Bruyne and with Rodri’s form declining, City’s possession is now superficial—lacking creativity and the ability to create real chances, just constant sideways and backward passing. If Guardiola cannot adapt, Manchester City will end up empty-handed again like last season. No matter how many new signings come in, it won’t help because Haaland’s physical style overburdens Guardiola’s tactics, making the team less flexible and dynamic than even the strikerless formations used before.