MU pays the price for wasting too many chances

25/12/2025 10:43:00 ChampionChatter

The statistics site Squawka recently created a Premier League ranking based on expected goals (xG) rather than actual results. In this ranking, MU is placed 4th.

According to Squawka, the results of each Premier League match this season are estimated by rounding the xG values of both teams to the nearest whole number, then recalculating the points.

MU surprises in the expected goals-based ranking

For example, Man City had an xG of 2.47 against Wolverhampton Wanderers in round 1, rounded down to 2, while Wolves’ xG of 0.56 was rounded up to 1. Therefore, the final xG result is Man City beating Wolves 2-1.

In the 2025/26 Premier League xG table, Arsenal remains top with 39 points from 12 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 28 goals and conceding only 7. Compared to the actual Premier League table, Arsenal’s position and points remain unchanged, though their goal tally differs. In reality, Arsenal scored 31 goals and conceded 10. Nevertheless, whether by xG or actual standings, Arsenal has the most solid defense.

Meanwhile, Man City holds 2nd place with 11 wins, 5 draws, and 1 loss, boasting 31 expected goals and 18 expected conceded, totaling 38 points—1 point more than in reality. Notably, Crystal Palace rises to 3rd, a jump of 5 places compared to the real table. Despite progress after winning the FA Cup, Palace still struggles to convert chances according to xG.

MU ranks 4th, climbing 3 spots, with 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses. Under coach Ruben Amorim, they have 33 goals scored and 24 conceded, earning 28 points. In reality, MU scored 31 goals and collected 26 points. It can be said MU efficiently capitalizes on chances and will definitely be in the Top 4.

Liverpool sits 5th with 7 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 28 and conceding 21 goals, accumulating 28 points. Liverpool’s position in the xG table matches their actual standing.

MU would enter the Premier League Top 4 if they improve finishing.

Other Premier League teams

Leeds jumps to 6th, up 10 places, with 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses. This shows that if they play to their potential, Leeds could be a strong team; they currently stand 16th in reality. Chelsea drops to 7th, down 3 places, with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 28 and conceding 21 goals, totaling 27 points. Chelsea performs better than expected.

Bournemouth rises to 8th, up 7 places, with 6 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses. Newcastle climbs to 9th with 25 points, up 2 places, though finishing remains an issue as their scoring efficiency is below the quality of chances created. Brentford is 10th, also up 2 places, showing stability and maintaining a safe position under Thomas Frank.

Brighton falls to 11th due to too many draws, while Nottingham Forest rises to 12th, clearly benefiting from xG metrics. Aston Villa suffers the biggest drop, falling 10 places to 13th. Tottenham remains 14th, with Fulham and Everton at 15th and 16th respectively, both below their real standings. Wolves rise 3 places to 17th, indicating significant potential for improvement. West Ham stays 18th, Sunderland drops 13 places to 19th, and Burnley slips one place to bottom of the table.

Expected goals (xG) is a football metric used to assess the quality of scoring chances and the performance of teams or players. xG measures the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on factors like distance, angle, shot type, and situation context. Each shot is assigned a probability value reflecting how often similar shots have resulted in goals historically. For example, a shot with a 0.3 xG means that on average, 3 out of 10 such shots result in goals.

Son Tung

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