Africa Cup of Nations: Senegal vs Botswana! A 128-fold difference in market value, does the away team still have a chance?

Today, let's start withthe Africa Cup of Nations: Senegal vs Botswana!

This is the most lopsided matchup in this edition of the Africa Cup of Nations.

The teams’ market values are 411 million and 3.2 million respectively, with a 128-fold gap!

Senegal is one of Africa’s top three teams and the 2021 Africa Cup champion.

Meanwhile, Botswana is ranked only 138th globally, even below the Philippines, making them the lowest-ranked team in this tournament.

Everything seems straightforward, but there is one issue worth noting:How did Botswana qualify for the main Africa Cup of Nations tournament?

How did such a weak team like Botswana make it to the finals of the Africa Cup?

Because they finished second in their qualifying group.

Why were they second in their group?

Because they had one point more than the third-placed Mauritania.

Note: That single point is very valuable because they drew away against a strong team, Egypt, in the final round.

That match set a record: the highest possession rate in qualification history without a win.

Egypt had 83% possession, 29 shots on goal, and dominated Botswana like a storm, yet they could not win.

In the same final round, strong teams like Morocco (7-0 against Lesotho), Ivory Coast (4-0 against Chad), and Algeria (5-1 against Liberia) all crushed their opponents with clear possession and shooting advantages, but Egypt failed to do so.

Why couldn’t Egypt succeed?

It relates to Botswana’s distinctive style.

This team is very disciplined in parking the bus.

Although some might see their formation as 4-3-3 or similar,when facing strong teams, they clearly adopt a 5-4-1 formationwhere no matter how many players the opponent sends forward, their five defenders and four midfielders hold their positions tightly, leaving only one striker upfront for counterattacks.

Moreover, it’s not passive defending; players from this desert country have excellent stamina and tirelessly run and support each other defensively.

You can see that Egyptian players have individual skills and often break through 1-on-1.

But after beating one defender, the second, third, or even fourth defender comes to block, making it extremely difficult.

This opportunity to compete in the Africa Cup finals is very precious for their country; failing to reach the World Cup, this is their World Cup, so they take it very seriously.

Note: They started preparing very early.

Many people might only notice that they played a warm-up match against Tunisia’s national team.

In fact, they played three warm-up matches in Tunisia!

On the 14th and 16th, they faced Tunisian club teams—Espérance de Tunis and Buhaira—then on the 18th, they played Tunisia’s national team.

Why did they play so many matches in Tunisia?

Because Tunisia is also a North African country with a climate very similar to Morocco, the host of the Africa Cup, so Botswana went early to adapt.

This preparation attitude is truly serious.

In contrast, Senegal seems a bit careless, not even proactive with their squad list,which wasn’t released until December 11!People at home doubted whether coach Aliou Cissé and his team were having fun at the World Cup draw ceremony in the US and forgot their duties?

The squad list only came out on December 13, by which time Botswana had already started their warm-up games.

Also, players arrived late; even during Cissé’s pre-match press conference yesterday, one player, Osen, had not joined the team.

Many top coaches say that breaking down a parked bus defense is one of the toughest challenges, requiring precise planning and strong teamwork.

Although Senegal has a star-studded lineup, with this preparation attitude, their form might not be great—can they really break down such a defense?

Also note:Senegal will soon face a strong team, Congo,whose total squad value is 134 million, very close to Egypt’s 136 million.

The result of that match might decide the group winner; in comparison, goal difference in this match is less important.

However, for Botswana, goal difference in this match is extremely important because the third place could be eliminated, possibly decided by goal difference.

So, although the gap looks huge, can Botswana satisfy their fans? What do you think? I hope they can hold the line and not lose by more than two goals.

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will still send text analysis tonight. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. Let’s enjoy watching the games together!

If you like this, please tap to follow and like!