Issue 25165 Football Victory Lottery: Manchester City Defends Home Ground, Newcastle Faces Upset Risk, Real Madrid May Suffer Loss

1 Aston Villa VS Bournemouth

The home side is ranked eleventh and has made great progress since the season began. Their current form is solid, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss over their last six games. They remain undefeated at home with 3 wins, scoring 9 goals and conceding 6, suffering only a 0-2 defeat away to Liverpool. Notably, they have defeated both Manchester City and Tottenham. Over their last five home matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, netting 6 goals and allowing 5. Securing victories in three consecutive games while juggling multiple competitions is impressive.

The away team has maintained last season’s strong form and currently sits fifth, just one point behind second place. In the last six matches, they have 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Away, they have no wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their attack is potent, but their defense is somewhat weak. Notably, both their wins were at home. In the last five away games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal difference of 9 scored to 12 conceded. Their away performance is inconsistent.

The data slightly favors the home team, but the margin is not significant. Both sides have shown good recent form, and considering the away team’s strong attacking ability on the road, the home team will definitely face a challenge.

First draw, second home win

2 Brentford VS Newcastle

The home team ranks twelfth and has performed well, with 3 wins and 3 losses in the last six matches. At home, they have 2 wins and 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 9. In the last five home games, they achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, losing only 0-1 to Manchester City. They have also defeated Liverpool, Manchester United, and Aston Villa, showing strong home capability with a goal difference of 9 scored to 6 conceded.

The away team has struggled to maintain consistent form due to competing on multiple fronts. They lost 1-3 to West Ham in the last round but secured a win in European competition. Over the last six matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Away, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their two wins were at home. Due to a congested schedule, their form is unstable. In the last five away games, they have 3 draws and 2 losses, with a goal difference of 2 scored to 5 conceded. While their away attacking power is limited, their defense performs fairly well.

The data offers no clear advantage but gives the away team some confidence. However, considering recent performances, circumstances, and home/away strengths, this support is not very convincing.

First away win, second home win

3 Crystal Palace VS Brighton

After several poor rounds, the home team stopped the decline by winning away at Brentford last round, now sitting ninth. Their recent six matches show 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. At home, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and no losses, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their two losses occurred away. In the last five home games, they have 2 wins and 3 draws, with a goal difference of 8 scored to 5 conceded. Their home strength is decent and stable, though the quality of opponents (except Liverpool) is relatively low.

The away team ranks tenth, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last six matches. Away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Their performance is also good, showing strong attacking power. In five away games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, including a win over Chelsea and a draw with Wolves.

The data slightly supports the home team, but not strongly. Both teams have shown similar recent form, though the home team’s home ability edges out the away team’s away strength.

First home win, second draw

4 Nottingham Forest VS Leeds United

The home team has seemed to struggle all season, affected by competing on multiple fronts and lacking last season’s momentum. They currently rank 19th and are in a precarious position. Their last six matches yielded no wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. At home, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 11. Their last round was a 2-2 draw with Manchester United, showing some improvement. In the last five home games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal difference of 5 scored to 10 conceded. The impact of multiple competitions remains significant.

The away team is ranked 16th, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last six matches. Away, they have 1 win and 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11. They are somewhat stronger than the home side. In the last five away games, they have 1 win and 4 losses, with a goal difference of 3 scored to 12 conceded. Their away performance is very poor.

The data slightly favors the home team, though the intensity is low. Given recent form, the home team has no clear advantage, but considering home and away strengths, I lean toward the home side.

Home win

5 Manchester City VS Liverpool

The home team ranks second, six points behind the leader. Their margin for error is small if they want to challenge. In the last six matches, they have 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. At home, they are unbeaten with 3 wins, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Their only loss was away. In the last five home games, they have 4 wins and 1 loss, winning the last four matches consecutively. Their home form is generally reliable, with 13 goals scored and 4 conceded.

The away team ranks fourth. A series of winless matches has put their Champions League qualification at risk. However, a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League might boost their morale. In the last six matches, they have 2 wins and 4 losses. Away, they have no wins and 3 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 10. In their last five away games, they have 2 wins and 3 losses, with a goal difference of 8 scored to 9 conceded. They have lost their last three matches.

The data strongly favors the home team, reflecting the gap in strength between the two sides. The home team’s home ability surpasses the away team’s away capability significantly. Interestingly, the home team’s style suits the away team’s preferences, and in recent years, the home team has not gained an advantage.

First home win, second draw

6 Freiburg VS St. Pauli

The home team ranks eleventh, with 1 win, 4 draws, and 1 loss in the last six matches. At home, they have no wins, 2 draws, and no losses, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Overall, their form is rather average. In the last four home games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal difference of 7 scored to 7 conceded.

The away team ranks fifteenth and has lost all six of their last matches. Away, they have no wins, no draws, and 3 losses, scoring only 1 goal and conceding 14. Their form is extremely poor. In the last four away games, they have 1 win and 3 losses, with a goal difference of 2 scored to 5 conceded.

The data strongly supports the home team. Based on recent performances, the home side is trustworthy.

Home win

7 Frankfurt VS Mainz

The home team currently ranks ninth but has struggled on multiple fronts recently. They have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last six matches. At home, they have 1 win and 2 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Their offensive ability remains strong, but their defense is full of gaps. In the last four home games, they have 2 wins and 2 losses, with a goal difference of 9 scored to 8 conceded.

The away team ranks seventeenth and is already in the relegation zone. Competing on multiple fronts has left them exhausted. They have 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in the last six matches. Away, they have 1 win and 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 14. In the last four away games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal difference of 6 scored to 8 conceded.

The data supports the home team. Considering recent form, the home side has the edge, and their home advantage is significant.

Home win

8 Bologna VS Napoli

The home team is fifth, with 3 wins and 3 draws in the last six matches. At home, they have 1 win and 1 draw, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Their overall performance is solid. In the last four home games, they have 3 wins and 1 draw, with a goal difference of 7 scored to 1 conceded. Their home strength is reliable, though the quality of opponents was moderate, but their consistency is notable.

The away team leads the league, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last six matches. Their two losses were away, with a goal difference of 7 scored to 5 conceded. In the last five away games, they have 3 wins and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 4.

The data shows no clear bias but gives the away team some confidence. However, the away side’s away form is not invincible.

First draw, second away win

9 Roma VS Udinese

The home team ranks fourth, with 4 wins and 2 losses in the last six matches, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their two losses were to AC Milan and Inter Milan, which is understandable. Against mid-to-lower table teams, they remain steady. In the last four home games, they have 3 wins and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their offense is not strong, but their defense is solid.

The away team ranks ninth, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last six matches, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Both losses were away. In the last five away games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, showing inconsistency, with a goal difference of 4 scored to 10 conceded. They occasionally produce good performances.

The data strongly supports the home team, which is reasonable given recent form and home/away status. However, considering the home team’s squad depth and involvement in multiple competitions, fitness could be a concern.

First draw, second home win

10 Inter Milan VS Lazio

Home win

11 Rayo Vallecano VS Real Madrid

The home team ranks tenth, with 3 wins and 3 losses in the last six matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their recent home form is average, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring and conceding 3 goals each. They have drawn against Barcelona, showing some home reliability.

The away team leads the league, with 5 wins and 1 loss in the last six matches, scoring 16 and conceding 8. Their overall performance is excellent. In the last five away games, they have 4 wins and 1 loss, losing only 2-5 to Atletico Madrid, with a goal difference of 12 scored to 7 conceded.

The data strongly favors the away team. However, their recent midweek Champions League loss to Liverpool may have some impact, and given the home team’s strong home form, an upset is possible.

First away win, second draw

12 Valencia VS Real Betis

The home team ranks eighteenth and is in the relegation zone. They have no wins in their last six matches, with 2 draws and 4 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 12. In the last five home games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their home strength is somewhat acceptable.

The away team ranks fifth, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last six matches, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Their form is much stronger than the home side. In the last five away games, they have 1 win and 4 draws, remaining unbeaten away. Though their away winning ability is limited, their stability is excellent, with a goal difference of 8 scored to 7 conceded.

The data supports the away team but not strongly. Given recent form, the home team’s home strength is comparable to the away team’s away ability. Coupled with the away side’s multiple competitions, this match might bring surprises.

First away win, second home win

13 Mallorca VS Getafe

The home team ranks seventeenth, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last six matches. Their three losses were away, with a goal difference of 6 scored to 8 conceded. In the last five home games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8.

The away team ranks seventh, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last six matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6. In the last five away games, they have 2 wins and 3 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 7.

The data supports the home team. Given the recent form and home/away strengths, this is unsurprising.

First home win, second away win

14 Celta Vigo VS Barcelona

The data favors the away team but not as strongly as expected. The home team has performed very well recently, while the away team’s away strength is insufficient. This match requires caution.

First away win, second draw