Issue 25164 of the football victory lottery: Arsenal might face an upset, Chelsea is unpredictable, Leverkusen is confident

1 Everton vs Fulham

The home team is ranked 14th, with a recent six-match record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses; at home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 5 and conceding 10 goals. Their form has dropped considerably compared to the early league stage. It's worth noting that the three defeats were against strong teams, making the losses reasonable. Over five home matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with an equal goal difference of 5 for and 5 against, indicating fairly steady home performance.

The away team ranks 15th, with a recent six-match record of 2 wins and 4 losses, no draws; away from home, they have no wins, no draws, and 3 losses, scoring 9 goals and conceding 10. Their performance is average, especially on the road, but their attack is notably stronger than the home side’s. In five away games, they have 1 draw and 4 losses, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded, showing a typical pattern of strong home and weak away form.

The data favors the home team. Considering both teams’ recent form is rather average, the home side’s strength at home compared to the away side’s weakness on the road makes this data quite reasonable.

Draw first, home win second

2 West Ham vs Burnley

The home team is ranked 18th, in the relegation zone, with a recent six-match record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses; at home, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 6 goals but conceding 10. Their performance is quite poor, but last round’s 3-1 home victory over Newcastle might mark a turning point. Over five home games, they have 1 win and 4 losses, with 5 goals scored and 13 conceded; defense remains a critical issue.

The away team ranks 17th, just one win ahead of the home side. This is a crucial match. Recently, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; away, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 8 goals and conceding 12. Despite defensive weaknesses, their attack is decent. The three losses came against strong teams; they managed to earn points from teams they should have. In five away matches, they have 1 win and 4 losses, with 7 goals scored and 15 conceded. All four losses were against strong opponents.

The data supports the home team strongly. Based on recent performances, the home side has little chance of winning, and both teams have similar home and away strengths. However, different opponents lead to different outcomes. For the home team to recover quickly, they need to secure points against weaker teams. If they push too hard in this match, the away team’s forwards will definitely have opportunities.

Home win first, away win second

3 Sunderland vs Arsenal

The home team is fourth, a clear dark horse, unbeaten at home so far, though their opponents have generally been weak. The away team is performing well on multiple fronts this season, showing rare consistency.

The data heavily favors the away team, with strong support. However, since the away side played a Champions League match midweek, if the home team defends deeply, the away team might not secure all three points.

Away win first, draw second

4 Chelsea vs Wolves

The home team just played a Europa League match against Qarabağ, resulting in a draw, which was embarrassing. Back in the league, if they cannot beat the inconsistent and poor-performing away team, it would be hard to justify.

The data gives strong support to the home team. Previously, this level of support would be fine, but now the home team’s form is unstable, so caution is advised.

Home win first, away win second

5 Hoffenheim vs Leipzig

The home team is a typical example of being weak at home but strong away, having only beaten Heidenheim at home since the season started. The away team currently ranks second, improving steadily, and without multi-competition duties this season, they are fully focused on the league and quite formidable. They have only lost to Bayern and drawn with Dortmund, showing excellent form.

The data shows no clear bias, but this lacks basis since the home team’s home form is very poor, likely causing psychological disadvantage.

Away win

6 Hamburg vs Dortmund

The home team has worked hard but due to limited ability ranks 13th, which is already quite good. Their performance since the league began does not show any outstanding qualities.

The away team competes on multiple fronts and performs well, currently third. From various competitions, only Bayern has beaten them away; other teams find it hard to overcome them. Their last Europa League match ended badly with a 1-4 loss, reflecting the strain of multi-competition and limited squad depth.

The data supports the away team, but the strength of this support is insufficient compared to the teams’ abilities and form.

Away win first, draw second

7 Leverkusen vs Heidenheim

The home team ranks fifth, still short of the Champions League spots. As the season progresses and with multi-competition duties, their form has improved. In the league, they only lost last round away to Bayern and recently beat Lisbon in the Champions League.

The away team is limited; their last draw against Frankfurt was partly because Frankfurt rested players for Europe.

The data strongly supports the home team, who need to secure enough points against winnable teams to reach the Champions League zone.

Home win

8 Union Berlin vs Bayern

Who can stop the southern powerhouse in the league now? The addition of Díaz has revitalized the entire attack. The defensive tactics seen in the European match also showed their overwhelming strength.

Away win

9 Mönchengladbach vs Cologne

The home team has performed very poorly this season, currently just one point above the relegation zone. Last round, they won 4-0 away against St. Pauli, hopefully marking a good start.

The away team has been somewhat impressive this season, ranking seventh. Their recent six matches include 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses; away, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 8 goals. The three losses were against the league’s top three teams, which is reasonable. In their last five away matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. They have conceded many goals, including three against Leipzig and three against Wolfsburg, but also scored three. Thus, it is not easy for lower-mid table teams to beat them away.

The data favors the home team, although the support is mild and not well grounded. Based on current form and home/away strength, the home team will struggle to withstand the challenge.

Away win first, home win second

10 Juventus vs Torino

The home team played a Europa League match midweek, drawing with Lisbon. They currently rank sixth in the league, with a recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 2 draws, no losses, scoring 6 and conceding 6 goals. Their recent form is average in attack and defense, but two consecutive wins have improved their momentum. Over the last five home games, they have 3 wins and 2 draws, with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded, showing stable home performance, including draws against AC Milan and Atalanta, both strong teams.

The away team ranks 13th, with a recent six-match record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss; away, no wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 8 goals. Their performance is similar to the home team, remaining unbeaten in five matches recently. In their last five away games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, beating Roma and drawing with Lazio and Bologna, showing decent away capability.

The data strongly supports the home team, but this does not consider the fatigue from their multi-competition schedule, their recent mediocre form, or the away team’s decent away strength.

Home win first, draw second

11 Parma vs AC Milan

The home team ranks 16th, with a recent record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 7 goals. Their performance remains poor. In five home games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded.

The away team ranks third, with a recent record of 3 wins and 3 draws, no losses; away, no wins, 2 draws, and no losses, scoring 8 and conceding 5 goals. Although their overall form is good, most wins came at home. In their last five away matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (to Roma). Their overall away performance is decent, facing relatively strong opponents, adding credibility.

The data favors the away team strongly, but this support seems insufficient compared to recent form.

Away win first, draw second

12 Sevilla vs Osasuna

The home team ranks 13th, with a recent record of 2 wins and 4 losses, no draws; at home, 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11 goals. Their performance is poor, though their attack is active but defense weak. In five home games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded.

The away team ranks 14th, with a recent record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses; away, no wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8 goals. Their performance is also poor, with weak attacking ability. In six away games, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, scoring only 1 goal and conceding 7, showing almost no away strength.

The data slightly favors the home team. Although the support is mild, based on recent form and home/away strength, the home side still holds some advantage.

Home win

13 Atlético Madrid vs Levante

The home team played a Europa League match midweek, but their opponent was weak, so it did not affect them much. They currently rank fourth and have stabilized, with a recent record of 5 wins and 1 draw, no losses; at home, 4 wins, no draws, no losses, scoring 15 and conceding 5, showing excellent form, especially at home. In six home games, they have 5 wins and 1 draw, scoring 15 and conceding 5.

The away team ranks 16th, with a recent record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses; away, 1 win, 2 draws, and no losses, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Their away form is better, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in six away games, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Though their attack is weaker than the home team’s, their defense on the road is relatively solid. However, their opponents are weaker, so their offensive threat is limited.

The data strongly supports the home team. As the season progresses, they have overcome early instability and are improving. However, the away team’s recent form is quite good. Could there be a surprise in this match?

Home win first, draw second

14 Espanyol vs Villarreal

The home team ranks sixth, gradually emerging as a dark horse this season, only a step away from the Champions League zone. Their recent record is 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Although their attack is insufficient, their defense is solid. In their last six matches, they have 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss at home, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their only defeat was to fifth-ranked Betis, showing strong home capability.

The away team ranks third, with a nearly perfect record: 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently; away, 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 12 and conceding 6, performing better than the home team. In their last five away matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 7.

The data shows no clear bias. However, judging by recent form, the home team’s attack is clearly weaker than the away team’s, but their home strength is stronger than the away team’s away strength.

Away win first, home win second