Issue 25162 Football Win-Loss Lottery, Europa League Special, teams appear clearly unequal, but hidden currents exist

1 Red Star vs Lille

The home side leads the Serbian league but has been struggling lately, while the visitors are fourth in France’s Ligue 1 with fluctuating performance. Ultimately, the leagues differ in quality, and the home team’s strength is noticeably inferior to the away team’s.

The home team’s three official matches yielded no wins, one draw, and two losses; at home, they have zero wins, one draw, and no losses, scoring 2 goals and conceding 5, reflecting poor performance, though their opponents possess decent Europa League-level strength.

The away team has two wins, no draws, and one loss in three matches, with an away record of one win and no draws or losses, scoring 6 and conceding 5 goals. A surprising 3-4 home loss to Cesalo indicates some defensive vulnerabilities.

The data does not strongly favor either side but slightly boosts confidence for the away team, though the advantage is minimal.

First match away win, second match home win

2 Malmö vs Panathinaikos

The home team is seventh in the Swedish league, the away team eighth in the Greek league; both have average league performances, and the home team’s home form this season has not been strong. Overall, the home side is significantly weaker than the visitor.

The home team has one draw and two losses in three official matches, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Their last game was a 1-1 home draw against Dinamo Zagreb, showing they can sometimes exceed expectations at home.

The away team recorded one win and two losses in three matches, scoring and conceding 6 goals each. They won 4-1 away against Young Boys, lost 1-2 at home to HJK Helsinki, and lost 1-3 at home to Feyenoord.

The data shows no clear bias, but the home team’s strength cannot fully justify the odds.

First match away win, second match draw

3 Midtjylland vs Celtic

The home team is second in Denmark’s Superliga, matched domestically only by Copenhagen; the away team ranks second in Scotland’s Premiership and is equally dominant at home. The home team’s overall strength is somewhat lower than the visitor’s.

The home side has won all three official matches: 2-0 at home against Sturm Graz, 3-2 away at Nottingham Forest, and 3-0 away at Maccabi. They have conceded only 2 goals while scoring 8, a very solid record.

The away team has one win, one draw, and one loss in three matches: a 1-1 away draw against Belgrade, a 0-2 home loss to Braga, and a 2-1 home win over Graz, scoring 3 and conceding 4 goals.

The data slightly favors the home team, though not strongly; based on current form, the home team likely has more confidence.

First match home win, second match draw

4 Nice vs Freiburg

The home team is eighth in Ligue 1, the away team eleventh in the Bundesliga; both have struggled in their leagues, but overall the home team is stronger than the visitor.

The home team lost all three official matches: 1-2 at home to Roma, 1-2 away to Fenerbahce, and 1-2 away to Celta Vigo, scoring 3 and conceding 6, showing poor form.

The away team has two wins and one draw in three matches: 2-1 home win over Basel, 1-1 away draw at Bologna, and 2-0 home win against Utrecht, scoring 5 and conceding 2, performing well.

The data lacks a clear lean, but considering European performance, the away team appears stronger, although their away form is not impressive.

First match away win, second match home win

5 Salzburg vs HJK Helsinki

The home team leads Austria’s Bundesliga, while the away team ranks eleventh in the Dutch league; their league situations differ, with the home team’s overall strength superior.

The home team has lost all three official matches, including zero wins and two home losses, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Their opponents were relatively stronger, making their schedule tough.

The away team has two wins and one loss: a 0-1 home loss to Bucharest Star, 2-1 away win over Panathinaikos, and 2-1 home win against Villa, scoring 4 and conceding 3.

The data favors the home team, but given both teams’ current form, the support seems excessive.

First match home win, second match away win

6 Graz vs Nottingham Forest

The home team ranks fourth in Austria, while the away team is 19th in their league; their league situations differ greatly, but overall the home team is much weaker than the visitor.

The home side has one win and two losses in three matches: 0-2 away loss to Midtjylland, 2-1 home win over Rangers, and 1-2 away loss to Celtic, scoring 3 and conceding 5.

The away team has one win, one draw, and one loss: 2-2 draw with Betis, 2-3 home loss to Midtjylland, and 2-0 home win over Porto, scoring 6 and conceding 5, showing decent overall form.

The data supports the away team strongly. This season, the away side is unlikely to make breakthroughs domestically but might achieve results in Europe.

Away win

7 Utrecht vs Porto

The home team is sixth in the Dutch league but has faced many recent domestic troubles, especially poor away performances. The away team leads their domestic league with good form, and the home team is noticeably weaker overall.

The home team has lost all three official matches: 0-1 home loss to Lyon, 0-1 away loss to Brann, and 0-2 away loss to Freiburg, failing to score any goals and conceding 4.

The away team has two wins and one loss: 1-0 away win over Salzburg, 2-1 home win against Red Star Belgrade, and 0-2 away loss to Nottingham Forest, scoring 3 and conceding 3, performing adequately.

The data favors the away team, and given their form and strength, their advantage is clear, though the odds do not strongly reflect this. Hopefully, the away team will deliver.

Away win

8 Bologna vs Brann

There is a significant difference in strength between the teams.

Home win

9 Braga vs Genk

The home team has won all three official matches: 1-0 home win over Genk, 2-0 away win against Celtic, and 2-0 home win over Red Star Belgrade, scoring 5 and conceding none, an impressive clean sheet record.

The away team has one win, one draw, and one loss: 1-0 away win over Rangers, 0-1 home loss to Ferencvaros, and 0-0 home draw with Betis. Their defense is solid but their attack lacks power, scoring 1 and conceding 1.

The data strongly supports the home team, perhaps overly so, but the teams’ strengths are not vastly different, and the away team’s defense is respectable.

First match home win, second match draw

10 Betis vs Lyon

Both teams have similar league circumstances, but overall the away team is stronger than the home side.

The home team has one win and two draws in three matches: 2-2 home draw with Nottingham Forest, 2-0 away win over Ludogorets, and 0-0 away draw with Genk, scoring 4 and conceding 2, a fairly normal performance.

The away team has won all three matches: 1-0 away win over Utrecht, 2-0 home wins against Salzburg and Basel, conceding no goals and showing strong defense.

The data favors the home team with considerable strength, but given the away team’s superior strength, form, and defense, this is somewhat puzzling.

First match away win, second match draw

12 Stuttgart vs Feyenoord

The home team ranks fourth in their league with good performance, especially strong at home. The away team is first in the Dutch league with solid form but has some away weaknesses. Overall, the teams’ strengths are quite close.

The home team has one win and two losses in three official matches, with a home record of one win and no losses, scoring 2 and conceding 4. Opponents included Celta, Basel, and Fenerbahce, all with moderate strength and poor European form.

The away team also has one win and two losses: one home win and no draws or losses at home, scoring 3 and conceding 3 against Braga, Villa, and Panathinaikos.

The data supports the home team with notable strength. Although their recent form is not great, their league form is expected to improve, and they could perform well in Europe.

First match home win, second match draw

13 Plzen vs Fenerbahce

The home team ranks fourth domestically with good and stable recent form. The away team is second in their league, also performing well, but overall the home team is weaker than the visitor.

The home team has two wins and one draw in three official matches: a 1-1 away draw with Ferencvaros, 3-0 home win over Malmö, and 2-1 away win against Roma, showing strong form with 6 goals scored and 2 conceded.

The away team has two wins and one loss: a 1-3 away loss to Zagreb, 2-1 home win over Nice, and 1-0 home win against Stuttgart, scoring 4 and conceding 4, facing tough opponents.

The data shows no clear bias but gives some confidence to the away team, while the home team’s attacking ability should not be underestimated.

First match away win, second match home win

14 Cesalo vs Young Boys

The home team leads the Greek league and performs very well domestically, with overall strength superior to the visitor. They have one win, one draw, and one loss in three official matches: a 0-0 home draw with Maccabi, a 1-0 away loss to Celta, and a 4-3 away win over Lille, scoring 5 and conceding 3.

The away team ranks fourth in Sweden and has decent form but is still weaker than the home team. They have two wins and one loss: a 1-4 home loss to Panathinaikos, a 2-0 away win over Bucharest, and a 3-2 home win against Ludogorets, scoring and conceding 6 goals each.

The data strongly supports the home team, possibly beyond what their current form justifies, but considering their opponents’ strength, the home team’s form is reasonable.

Home win