Issue 25161 Football Win-Loss Lottery: Manchester City prospers with harmony, Chelsea is secure, Barcelona needs caution, Newcastle is worry-free.

1 Kobe vs Ulsan

The home team is fourth in the league, with two wins and one loss in three matches. They lost 3-4 away to Jiangyuan FC but have generally performed well, particularly showing good capability at home.

The visiting team ranks third in the league, with two wins and one draw in three matches, also showing a decent performance. Yet, offensively, the home team is slightly superior.

The data heavily supports the home side, but this level of confidence seems to disregard the fact that both teams are actually quite evenly matched. The gap isn’t that large.

First pick home win, second pick draw.

2 Johor vs Shenhua

The home team has one win, one draw, and one loss in three matches, including an away win against Rongcheng and a home draw against Machida, showing decent form. The visitors tend to perform better with home crowd support but struggle on the road.

The data supports the home team, which is less about overall strength and more related to tactical discipline and team spirit, and Chinese Super League teams often show no limits.

Home win.

3 Pafos vs Villarreal

There’s a significant gap in strength between the two teams. The home side has advanced past Maccabi, Dynamo Kyiv, and Belgrade, with three matches in the main competition resulting in two draws and one loss, draws against Olympiacos and Almaty, with a goal difference of 1/5, showing varied performance.

The visitors have one draw and two losses in three main matches, drawing Juventus and losing to Tottenham and Manchester City, with a goal difference of 2/5. Their opponents are very strong, so the results are not directly comparable.

The data strongly supports the visiting side, and this backing is quite substantial. Considering the visitors’ good league form and steady state, the data appears objective.

First pick away win, second pick draw.

4 Qarabağ vs Chelsea

The teams differ greatly in strength. The home team has two wins and one loss in three main matches, performing well overall: a 3-2 away win over Benfica, a 2-0 home win against Copenhagen, and a 1-3 away loss to Bilbao, with a goal difference of 6/3.

The visitors are seventh in the Premier League with a somewhat underwhelming performance: two wins and one loss in three main matches, including a 1-3 away loss to Bayern, a 1-0 home win over Benfica, and a 5-1 home victory against Ajax, with a goal difference of 7/4. They will still put full effort into European competition.

The data heavily favors the visitors. Given the visitors’ current momentum, this match shouldn’t be difficult.

Away win.

5 Ajax vs Galatasaray

The home team’s overall strength is definitely superior to the visitors. However, they have performed poorly in three main matches, suffering three consecutive defeats: 0-2 at home to Inter, 0-4 away to Marseille, and 1-5 away to Chelsea, with a goal difference of 1/11, showing a desperate lack of scoring ability.

The visitors have two wins and one loss in three main matches: a 1-5 away loss to Frankfurt, a 1-0 home win over Liverpool, and a 3-1 home win against Bodø, showing quite nice form with a goal difference of 5/6. On paper, their strength is quite high and not inferior to the home team.

The data supports the visitors, but the strength of this support is limited. The visitors’ away form is not great, and after three humiliating defeats, the home team is likely to make some adjustments. Earlier this year, the teams met once in the Europa League, with the home team winning 2-1, although post-match statistics showed the visitors dominated the game.

First pick away win, second pick draw.

6 Benfica vs Leverkusen

The home team is struggling, with no wins in three main matches: a 2-3 home loss to Qarabağ, a 0-1 away loss to Chelsea, and a 0-3 away loss to Newcastle. Their attack is almost invisible, with a goal difference of 2/7.

The visitors are not as strong as in previous seasons, largely due to the loss of key players. Although fifth in the league, their overall play is shaky with defensive weaknesses. In three main matches, they have two draws and one loss: a 2-2 away draw at Copenhagen, a 1-1 home draw with Eindhoven, and a heavy 2-7 home defeat to PSG, with a goal difference of 5/10.

The data gives slight support to the home team, but the strength is limited. Both teams show similar form in their matches, though the visitors’ offense is somewhat better.

First pick home win, second pick away win.

7 Club Brugge vs Barcelona

There is a big strength gap between the two teams. From three main matches, the home side has shown no resistance against strong opponents, so normally the visitors should have no problem.

The data supports the visitors, but this backing is far from enough given the teams’ strength and European form, making it somewhat unfavorable for the visitors.

First pick away win, second pick draw.

8 Inter Milan vs Almaty

Home win.

9 Marseille vs Atalanta

The home team ranks second in the league and has maintained good form, especially showing strong home fighting spirit, including a 4-0 home win against Ajax. In three main matches, they have one win and two losses: a 4-0 home win over Ajax, a 1-2 away loss to Real Madrid, and a 1-2 away loss to Lisbon, with a goal difference of 6/4. They have scored in all three matches, showing decent attacking ability.

The visitors rank eleventh in their league, performing mediocrely this season. In three main matches, they lost 0-4 away to PSG, won 2-1 at home against Club Brugge, and drew 0-0 at home with Prague, showing inconsistency with a goal difference of 2/5.

The data supports the home team. Although the backing is not strong, the home team’s home strength should not be underestimated.

Home win.

10 Manchester City vs Dortmund

The home team ranks second in the league and seems to have overcome early-season turbulence, now stabilizing with two wins and one draw in three main matches. They won 2-0 at home against Napoli, drew 2-2 away with Monaco, and won 2-0 away against Villarreal, with a goal difference of 6/2. While there are some concerns away, their home fighting spirit remains strong.

The visitors currently rank third in their league, showing excellent recent form with two wins and one draw in three main matches: a 4-4 away draw with Juventus, a 4-1 home win over Bilbao, and a 4-2 away win at Copenhagen. Their offense is very powerful, though they concede goals regularly, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities.

The data strongly supports the home team. Though this backing may seem modest compared to their strength, Manchester City today is a very different team.

First pick draw, second pick home win.

11 Newcastle vs Bilbao

The home team sacrificed their weekend match against West Ham for this game, which is expected to pay off. They have two wins, zero draws, and one loss in three main matches, with one home win and one home loss, scoring 8 goals and conceding 2, only losing 1-2 to Barcelona. They have won multiple home matches, showing strong home capability.

The visitors rank eleventh in their league and have performed averagely, with one win, zero draws, and two losses in three main matches. They have no away wins, zero draws, and one away loss, scoring 4 goals and conceding 7, only beating the relatively weak Saint-Gilloise 3-1. Their away form has been poor with multiple defeats, showing weak away strength.

The data gives considerable support to the home team, which aligns with both teams’ recent form.

Home win.

12 Preston vs Swansea

The home team ranks sixth overall, performing well with three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. At home, they have two wins, zero draws, and one loss, scoring 10 goals and conceding 7, showing good offense but average defense. In their last six home games, they have three wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring 8 and conceding 5, drawing with Millwall and Bristol, and winning against Charlton—teams with decent quality.

The visitors rank sixteenth and have had an average performance with two wins, two draws, and two losses in their last six matches. Away, they have one win, two draws, and zero losses, scoring 6 and conceding 7, performing normally. In their last six away games, they have two wins, two draws, and two losses, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Their offense is average but their defense is solid.

The data supports the home team, with a moderate level of confidence based on recent form, but it is still not strong enough.

First pick home win, second pick draw.

13 Rangers vs Southampton

The home team ranks thirteenth with average performance: two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. At home, they have zero wins, one draw, and two losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8, showing problems in both attack and defense. Their two wins came away from home. In their last six home games, they have two wins, two draws, and two losses, scoring 7 and conceding 8, with three recent losses and excessive goals conceded. However, they drew with Preston and won against Charlton and Stoke City—teams with decent form, indicating large fluctuations in performance.

The visitors rank 21st, surprisingly poor for a team of near-Premier League strength. In their last six matches, they have one win, two draws, and three losses. Away, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 5 and conceding 9, with disorganized attack and defense. They have not won in their last five matches and lost the last three, currently at a low point. In their last six away games, they have one win, two draws, and three losses, scoring 8 and conceding 12.

The data shows no clear bias, giving the visitors slight support based on strength, but recent form and home/away capability do not back this up.

First pick away win, second pick home win.

14 Portsmouth vs Rotherham

The home team ranks 20th with poor performance: one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. At home, they have one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring 5 and conceding 10. They have lost the last three matches and performed badly. In their last six home games, they have two wins, one draw, and three losses, scoring 5 and conceding 7. They can beat Millwall but also lose to Sheffield Wednesday, showing very unstable form.

The visitors rank fifteenth, with two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Away, they have no wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 6, showing fairly good overall form. Recently, they won 3-2 at home against Coventry and drew 1-1 away at Millwall, both impressive results. In their last six away games, they have two wins, two draws, and two losses, scoring 8 and conceding 7, showing respectable away strength.

The data shows no clear preference, giving the home team some confidence, but based on recent form and home/away records, the home team may not necessarily have the advantage.

First pick away win, second pick draw.