Issue 25129 of the football victory lottery, Ipswich shows strength at home, Leverkusen’s defense is shaky, Marseille’s form is concerning.

1 IpswichVSSheffield United

The home side is considered fairly strong in the Championship, yet after four league games, their three draws and one loss record is underwhelming, with goals for and against standing at 4/5.

The visitors are more baffling; although not weak overall, they have lost all four league matches, with a goal difference of 1/7, suggesting some problems within the club, possibly unpaid wages?

The data favors the home team, though the support isn’t strong given both sides’ strength and current form, the home team’s offensive capability is significantly better.

First home win, next away win

2 LeverkusenVSFrankfurt

The home team has become mediocre following the coach’s departure and loss of key players. After two league games, they have one draw and one loss; last round they drew 3-3 with Bremen, and lost 1-2 to Hoffenheim in the first. Opponents were not strong, with goals for and against at 4/5, showing decent attack but significant defensive issues.

The visitors have two wins from two matches, against the exact opponents the home team faced in their first two rounds, but with completely different results, scoring 7 and conceding 2, excelling in both offense and defense.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly leans towards the home team; however, given both teams’ performances, this is not very convincing, and the visitors could easily overturn the situation away from home.

First away win, next home win

3 BielefeldVS MarseilleMarseille

The home team was promoted to the 2. Bundesliga and overall is weaker than the visitors. After four rounds, they have performed well, with two wins, one draw, and one loss, exceeding expectations. Their goal difference is 9/4; defense has minor flaws but the attack is very fierce, especially a 5-1 home win over a strong Düsseldorf team, which was impressive.

The visitors have one win and three losses after four rounds, performing poorly with a goal difference of 7/10. Although they have some attacking ability, their defense is very weak. Their sole victory was against a newly promoted team and lacks value.

The data does not strongly favor either side but slightly overestimates the home advantage. Still, the visitors are stronger, and since the league is just starting, caution is advised.

First home win, next draw

4 PaderbornVS BochumBochum

The home team is slightly weaker than the visitors, with one win, two draws, and one loss after four matches, a mediocre performance, scoring and conceding 4 each. Their attack is weak but defense is decent.

The visitors are relegated teams but have been disappointing in the league with one win and three losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8, showing weak offense and defense.

The data supports the home team, though not strongly. Considering the four matches played, the home team’s form is noticeably better, and they also have a historical home advantage in head-to-heads.

First home win, next away win

5 Sevilla VS Elche

The home team is significantly stronger than the visitors. In the league, they have one win and two losses; their sole win was away against a struggling Girona. Their goal difference is 5/5, showing decent offense but average defense.

The visitors are newly promoted but have impressed with one win and two draws in three league games, exceeding expectations, especially against strong teams like Betis and Atlético Madrid. Their goal difference is 4/2, with good offense and solid defense.

The data favors the home team, but given the three matches’ performances, this seems somewhat unfair.

First home win, next draw

6 MarseilleVS LyonLyon

The home team is clearly superior in overall strength but has a poor record of one win and two losses in three league games. Both losses were away matches, suggesting a strong home and weak away pattern this season. Their goal difference is 5/4, mainly due to a 5-2 win over Paris FC, which doesn’t fully convince and highlights defensive weaknesses.

The visitors have one win and two losses in three games, recently suffering a heavy 1-7 defeat to Lyon. It’s uncertain if morale will recover after a short break. Their goal difference is 5/8.

The data heavily supports the home team, but given the current form of both sides, the home team could still falter, as even a newly promoted team managed to score twice against them.

Home win

7 AmiensVSBastia

The two teams are fairly evenly matched. The home team has one win, two draws, and one loss in four games, performing well. Draws with Reims and Montpellier were notable. They have scored 6 and conceded 5, showing strong offense but slight defensive weaknesses.

The visitors have played one game less, with one draw and two losses in three matches, performing poorly with 2 goals scored and 4 conceded, indicating weaknesses in both attack and defense.

The data supports the visitors, but the strength of this support is weak and recent performances don’t justify it, making this match somewhat unusual.

First home win, next away win

8 BoulogneVSLaval

The home team has lost all three matches played, showing poor form. The visitors have drawn all four games, remaining unbeaten, with decent attack but minor defensive errors, scoring and conceding 5 each.

The data shows no clear bias, but considering the visitors’ offensive ability, there should be no major issues.

Away win

9 Le MansVSRodez

The two teams have similar strength, with the home team slightly weaker. As a newly promoted side, the home team has one win, one draw, and two losses in four league matches, performing moderately with a goal difference of 5/6. Their attack is decent, including a 3-3 draw with Guingamp and a narrow 1-0 loss to Reims.

The visitors have one win, two draws, and one loss in four games, also average, with a goal difference of 2/5 and limited attacking power.

The data supports the home team modestly, and given both teams’ performances, this seems fairly objective.

First home win, next draw

10 PEC Zwolle VSStade de Reims

The two teams are closely matched. The home team has two wins and two draws in four league games, remaining unbeaten with a goal difference of 7/3. They have won both home games, scoring four goals and conceding none, showing strong home performance.

The visitors have two wins, one draw, and one loss in four games, also performing well with a goal difference of 7/4. Their away record is one win and one draw, showing decent away strength.

The data shows no clear bias; with both sides’ defenses considered, the outcome is hard to predict.

First home win, next away win

11 TroyesVSNancy

The home team is stronger overall, with two wins, one draw, and one loss after four rounds, showing decent performance. Their goal difference is 4/3, with two consecutive home wins demonstrating good home strength.

The visitors have been promoted from the third division and remain unbeaten after four rounds with two wins and two draws, scoring 6 and conceding 3. They performed impressively by beating Dunkirk and drawing with Zwolle, showing higher quality overall than the home team.

The data shows no clear bias and is relatively objective given both teams’ current form, but based on strength, the home team is slightly superior.

First home win, next draw

12 AvicaVSTondela

After four league games, the home team has one draw and three losses, performing poorly with a goal difference of 4/9 and very weak defense. The visitors have the same record and poor performance, with a goal difference of 3/9.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the home team. Both sides have weak offense and poor defense.

First draw, next home win

13 BenficaVSSanta Clara

There is a clear gap in strength between the two teams, and the data gives full support to the home team.

Home win

14 BodøVSKristiansund

The home team currently ranks first, with five wins and one draw in their last six matches, including a home record of two wins and one draw, scoring 19 and conceding 5, demonstrating excellent offense and defense. In their last six home games, they have four wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 15 and conceding 5, showing strong home form.

The visitors are twelfth, with one win, three draws, and two losses in their last six matches. Their away record is one win and one loss, scoring 5 and conceding 15, much weaker than the home team. In their last six away matches, they have three wins, one draw, and two losses, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Although they have conceded many goals, their overall results are not too bad, mainly due to two heavy defeats.

The data fully supports the home team, who have never lost in head-to-head meetings. With a Champions League match next week, will the home team hold back?

Home win