The LOL Saudi Esports World Cup is down to its final four matches. On the previous competition day, the two LCK teams made their first appearance in the Petroleum Cup. In the upper bracket, GEN convincingly beat FLY 2:0, moving on to the semifinals to meet G2, while in the lower bracket, T1 fought MKOI, going to three games before T1 won, leading to their next match against AL.

It's hard not to suspect that T1's mid-season tournament and the Petroleum Cup are under some kind of viewership contract. During MSI, aside from their clean sweep against BLG, all other matches went the full five games. Now in the Petroleum Cup, T1's match against MKOI also went to a full Bo3, showing that any team can manage to take a game off T1. Of course, this is just a joke; the reality is that old Li is performing poorly and almost got completely dominated in the mid-lane matchup.

In the first game against MKOI, Azir had a favorable matchup against Taliyah early on, but Faker was at a disadvantage throughout, getting pressured under his tower by Jojopyun. Even with multiple jungle and support visits to mid, when Taliyah was 0-3, old Li was still behind economically. In the second game, playing his signature Ryze, he secured some kills early on and maintained an economic lead, but in team fights, he ended up giving kills away to the opponents. This time, support Keria had a rough game.

In the deciding game, the opposing team gave opportunities as Oner helped old Li secure first blood. After catching the enemy jungler, he got an assist, and with Viktor leveling up his skills early, he should have been able to control the game in the mid-game. However, Faker played too aggressively, trying to trade blows when his health was low, resulting in being solo killed by Jojopyun. During the lane swap phase against K'Sante, old Li again showed his overconfidence, leading to another solo kill against him.

Starting with a score of 1-0-1, he ended up at 1-2-1. If it weren't for Oner's excellent rhythm and Gumayusi's rapid item progression, the outcome of the final game could have been uncertain. Compared to his previous state against GEN and AL during MSI, old Li's decline seems quite significant. If he continues like this against Chovy, it feels like AL has a good chance to win against T1 and reach the finals, as Faker might be outclassed in the mid-lane matchup.

However, old Li's form is unpredictable; perhaps after a good night's sleep, he might regain his touch. In the upcoming two BO3 matches, GEN facing G2 seems to have the least suspense. Although G2 beat BLG, their form remains poor, and their victory was largely due to BLG's weakness. Facing the MSI champions, it’s hard to see any hope of winning; they are likely to get swept 2:0. GEN advancing to the finals could mean they finish with back-to-back championships.

The match between T1 and AL is expected to be quite intense. The two teams previously played a full BO5, showing very close skill levels, but old Li's form may be a concern. This match presents AL with their best chance to defeat an LCK team. If they can reach the finals, with their peak performance against GEN, AL could have a fighting chance, and who knows, this year at the Petroleum Cup, LPL might finally shake off the “bottom tier region” label.

After the semifinals, there will be a single BO1 match for third place, where G2 is likely to end up fourth. The remaining three teams' rankings are still uncertain and will depend on their semifinal performances. The finals will be the only BO5 match, and if AL makes it, they could contribute to another high-quality Sino-Korean showdown. For now, we can only hope that Faker’s form is indeed poor; if he’s just conserving energy, AL might have a tough time.

Conclusion:

In the first round of the playoffs, AL has already crushed HLE. If they can eliminate T1 and then defeat GEN, using the names of the three LCK teams engraved on the trophy base, LPL would truly have some prestige. However, that’s just wishful thinking; winning against both T1 and GEN is quite a tall order. Reaching the finals would already be a significant achievement.

So what do you think, is Faker just conserving energy?

Feel free to leave your comments and discuss!