The first stage group matches of the LPL have only six BO3 series remaining. Recently, LNG defeated UP 2-0, marking their fifth victory and maintaining a perfect 5-0 record. LNG is currently the only undefeated team in this stage. Their new Korean jungler Croco has proven to be quite skilled, frequently being the MVP in their wins. Should he keep up this form, he is expected to join an elite team next season.

On the same day, another match featured IG facing JDG. These two teams have a bit of history; regardless of their lineups, IG has dominated JDG over recent seasons. Before this match, IG had an 8-game winning streak against JDG. In the first game, IG easily defeated JDG, leading many to expect JDG’s ninth consecutive loss. However, JDG rallied in the next two games with strong performances from their mid and top lanes, overturning the series to win 2-1.

After beating IG, JDG’s record improved to 5-4. Meanwhile, fifth-ranked Top Esports only has 3 wins. Even if they win their last match, they cannot catch or surpass JDG. Thus, JDG has become the third LPL team to qualify for the playoffs. From a weak start losing to IG to a strong finish with a double victory over BLG, Tabe has indeed shown his worth. The progress of HongQ and Xiao Xu is visibly remarkable.

There are only four direct playoff spots in the Peak Group. With JDG qualifying, IG has lost their chance for direct entry. IG will face either NIP or EDG on the Road of Knights. The last remaining spot will be contested between Weibo and Top Esports. Weibo's 4-win advantage is significant. They will play AL and IG in their final two matches; they might lose the first but are very likely to win the second.

WBG currently holds a 4-4 record and only needs to win one of their next two matches to reach the playoffs. For Top Esports, only a theoretical chance remains: they stand at 3-6 with one match left. To qualify directly, TES must first defeat JDG 2-0 in their final game. Additionally, JDG must be swept, and Weibo must lose two consecutive matches, including one by 0-2, for TES to advance directly.

WBG’s current game score difference is -1. If they lose both matches and get swept 0-2 in one, their score difference drops to -4. If Top Esports sweeps JDG, their difference will be -3. Besides that scenario, TES could also tie with WBG in score difference. Their head-to-head is 1-1, so the tiebreaker would depend on game duration. Realistically, TES’s chances are slim. If Weibo cannot even beat IG, they won’t make the top four either.

Unless something unexpected happens, both Top Esports and IG will have to compete in the Road of Knights. This year’s format reform divides the Road of Knights into three stages. In the first stage, the Peak Group’s 5th and 6th place teams and the Resolute Group’s top two teams have a revival chance. Winners qualify directly for the playoffs, while losers move to the third stage, competing against the bottom teams of the Resolute Group and the top two from the Phoenix Group. The overall strength is not very high, but upsets remain possible.

The Phoenix Group’s LNG team seems quite strong this year, undefeated 5-0 in group matches and only losing two small games. Even the current IG might struggle against them. However, since the Phoenix Group is the lowest tier, dominating weaker teams doesn’t guarantee good performance against Peak Group teams. Although IG is not very fast in the Peak Group, they should have no major problem securing a playoff spot via the Road of Knights.

Conclusion:

This year, no LPL team stands out as particularly dominant. Although BLG and AL are ranked top two, their laning and discipline issues persist. JDG and Weibo have similar problems, with veterans like Gazi and Xiaohu often underperforming. Compared to the neighboring LCK, the gap is quite noticeable, as GEN and T1 demonstrate strong league dominance.

So, do you think TES still has a chance to make the top four?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!