With only 4 days left until the LPL first stage group matches take a break, the direct playoff qualification picture is now quite clear. On the previous match day, LNG from the Phoenix group beat LGD to claim their fifth win of the stage. Their last match is against UP, and if all goes as expected, LNG will end undefeated with a 5-0 record. OMG, who are third, cannot match the points even if they win their final game, so LNG secures their spot on the Knight’s Path.

On the same day, another match featured AL versus TES. Although TES had previously upset BLG, AL showed perfect discipline and left no chance for TES. Both games saw AL exerting pressure across all four lanes simultaneously, leaving TES powerless to respond. AL swept TES 2-0, earning their sixth win of the first stage, solidifying their top spot in the group. Both AL and BLG have already secured playoff qualification with two matches to spare.

The top four teams from the Summit group qualify directly for the playoffs. After TES lost to AL, only one match remains for TES. Even if TES wins their final game, they can only reach four wins. BLG, currently second with five points, is out of TES’s reach. Therefore, all teams with five points or more have locked in their playoff spots. The remaining two playoff places are contested among teams ranked 3rd to 6th in the Summit group. WBG and JDG, both with four points, hold the biggest advantage and are almost guaranteed qualification.

WBG has played only seven matches so far and has three remaining. Winning just one of these will secure their playoff spot. Looking at their schedule, WBG is basically safe. Their next two games are against AL and BLG, which might be tough, but their final match is against the bottom-ranked IG. Even if they lose the first two, they should comfortably beat IG in the last game unless unexpected events occur, such as a dormant Xiaohu or a wildly performing Jiejie. Otherwise, losing to IG seems unlikely.

JDG has completed eight matches, with two remaining against TES and IG. Their playoff spot is also secure. Among these two opponents, IG should be a manageable win or at least yield one point. If JDG reaches five wins, TES and IG will have no chance to qualify. Thus, besides the already qualified BLG and AL, the other two teams likely to advance directly to the playoffs are WBG and JDG.

TES and IG currently only have theoretical chances to qualify directly. For TES to make it, they must win their final match against JDG with a 2-0 sweep. Meanwhile, JDG must lose 0-2 to IG. This scenario would tie TES and JDG on points, and TES could advance based on tiebreakers like head-to-head results or game duration. Another possibility is if WBG loses all their remaining matches.

TES currently has a point differential of -5, while IG is at +1. If TES sweeps JDG 2-0 and WBG loses all three remaining games — including one 0-2 defeat — TES’s point differential would surpass IG’s by one, allowing TES to qualify directly. IG’s chance to qualify directly is even slimmer; they must beat JDG and WBG and hope both JDG and WBG lose all their remaining matches.

The chances of JDG losing two consecutive matches and WBG dropping three in a row are very low. Therefore, it’s almost certain that IG and TES will compete on the Knight’s Path. Although this theoretical possibility exists, the conditions are extremely difficult. If IG manages to win two consecutive games and dominate JDG and WBG, they wouldn’t be at the bottom of the Summit group. WE has already qualified for the Knight’s Path and will face one of these two teams.

Conclusion:

The situation in the LPL Summit group this year can only be described as chaotic. Since AL regained form, they have been improving steadily and are likely to be the dominant team in the first stage. As for the runner-up, the outcome remains uncertain. BLG has only just managed a win against IG, and it’s still unclear whether their form has recovered or if their discipline issues have been resolved.

So, do you think TES still has a chance to qualify directly?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!