In the LCK Cup group stage, only one BO5 match remains. On the previous matchday, Xu faced off against Lee. It was expected that Xu, showing some promise at the season’s start, might put up a fight, but against T1 in a BO5, he was completely shut out. Since the start of the Super Week, only DK has been swept 3-0 quickly. However, compared to his three other teammates, Xu and coach Sima did put in a decent effort in this BO5.

DK’s top, jungle, and support were truly underwhelming in this match. Siwoo was solo killed by Doran in lane, and during team fights, he kept trying to flank repeatedly while his teammates were already collapsing. Compared to Doran, his performance was far inferior. The top lane was the most one-sided matchup in this BO5, to the point where Rumble could have been named Player of the Match. As for jungler Lucid, he showed mechanical skills but lacked strategic thinking, starting to feed wildly after 15 minutes.

There’s not much to say about the support role; facing Keria, he was treated like a rookie and constantly outplayed. With these three players, DK had a tough time trying to beat T1. After defeating DK, T1 finished the group stage undefeated at 5-0 and advanced directly to the playoffs. Due to a low tiebreaker score, DK missed out on first place in the group and was forced into the play-in stage early. Even if HLE wins the last BO5, DK’s points won’t be enough to finish in the top two.

The upcoming match between HLE and GEN will decide who goes to the winners’ bracket. Whether HLE advances or gets eliminated depends entirely on their own performance. After being swept by DK, HLE’s tiebreaker score is zero. If HLE beats GEN, regardless of the score, they will finish in the top two of the group and advance to playoffs with BFX. But if they lose, HLE might have to play in the play-in or even face direct elimination.

For HLE to qualify directly for the playoffs, they must defeat GEN. If they sweep 3-0 with a total game time not exceeding 105 minutes and 4 seconds, HLE will top the group. If they win 3-1 or 3-2, they will place second. However, if they lose to GEN, HLE faces elimination. A 0-3 or 1-3 loss with a game time over 34 minutes and 43 seconds means HLE is knocked out early and must prepare for the second split.

If HLE takes GEN to five games or loses 1-3 but the total time is under 34 minutes, HLE’s tiebreaker and time will surpass KT’s, eliminating KT from the play-in stage. Whether HLE advances, plays the play-in, or gets eliminated is entirely in their hands. Their final match carries the risk of both topping the group or finishing last, a rare and tense situation for HLE.

Objectively speaking, it’s unrealistic for HLE to sweep GEN or win 3-1 while controlling the game time. GEN’s strength in the LCK is a tier above even T1. HLE managed to compete evenly with BRO and DNS in the group stage, but expecting them to beat GEN is quite harsh on the players. Personally, I think HLE is very likely to be eliminated, and even taking GEN to five games will be difficult.

The Galaxy Battleship boasts three world champions, two of whom came from T1. Out of 10 teams, 9 remain, yet scoring still matters. The twin stars Redmi and Kanavi are truly impressive. Last year’s VCT had 5 teams advancing 4, and TES also had to calculate scores. HLE signing these two players is a big blessing this year. If they do get eliminated, the management will likely be furious. Just thinking about it feels absurd.

Conclusion:

Currently, BFX in the Ancient Dragon group stands undefeated. If HLE beats GEN, BFX advances to playoffs. If HLE loses, BFX still advances. With T1 securing their spot, the last two teams to qualify will most likely be GEN and BFX. However, HLE holds the initiative, and whether they advance depends entirely on their performance in the final match.

So, what do you think — can HLE beat GEN?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!