As the first stage group matches of the LCK region near conclusion during this super week, the world runner-up KT clashed with NS on the last match day. This BO5's result basically decides who claims the winner's bracket in the LCK Cup, since the first two BO5s were won by the Ancient Dragon group. Should NS be defeated, the Great Dragon group will fail to reach the winner's bracket. Provided GEN doesn’t lose unexpectedly to HLE, T1 will inevitably compete in the play-in stage.

Against expectations for NS, three international FMVP players simultaneously stepped up, leading the team to a 3-2 victory over KT, securing a win for the Great Dragon group. NS performed well in the first two games and quickly reached match point, but their juniors and Kingen faltered in the next two, allowing KT to even the score. In the decisive game, NS fully awakened and finished KT in just 26 minutes, handing the power to decide T1’s play-in fate to Coach Lee.

The final two matches remain crucial in determining the winner's and loser's bracket placements, while also impacting whether T1 must participate in the play-in stage and if HLE could be directly eliminated without making playoffs. Currently, if the Great Dragon group loses a BO5, they are out of the winner's bracket, so T1 must win. If DK beats T1, the Ancient Dragon group secures the winner's bracket, and BRO is eliminated early to prepare for the second stage.

If T1 loses, they will definitely have to play in the qualifiers because GEN’s tiebreakers will surpass T1 regardless of GEN’s win or loss, making it impossible for T1 to compete. However, if T1 defeats DK, they qualify directly for playoffs. If GEN beats HLE, the Great Dragon group claims the winner's bracket and both T1 and GEN advance. If GEN loses to HLE, T1’s overall points surpass GEN’s, so as long as T1 beats DK, Coach Lee’s playoff spot is secure.

Judging by current form, T1 is unlikely to lose. If DK loses, HLE’s position becomes precarious. The Ancient Dragon group’s bottom teams, DRX and KT, both have 2-3 records; KT’s tiebreakers are worse, placing them last. HLE currently stands at 2-2, but if they lose to GEN, their tiebreakers could fall below DRX or KT, making it highly probable they become the bottom team in the Ancient Dragon group and face a high risk of elimination.

If T1 beats DK, HLE must at least push GEN to a full BO5, or they will likely be eliminated. If HLE loses 0-3, their tiebreakers will be worse than KT’s, placing them last in the group. If they lose 1-3, the single game they win must conclude within 34 minutes and 39 seconds; even one second longer means their average winning time is higher than KT’s. The LCK Cup has no tiebreaker matches; ties are decided by average victory duration.

With 10 teams and only one elimination, it’s surprising points calculations are still necessary. HLE’s Galaxy Battleship is really struggling. To keep their play-in spot, HLE must win at least one game against GEN. However, if the series goes to five games, KT will be eliminated. Currently, HLE still holds the initiative, so it depends on their performance in the final super week match whether they can avoid being swept. Personally, I believe winning one game is achievable.

Honestly, the LCK Cup format is quite confusing. BRO, with a 0-5 record and no wins, still has a chance to play in the qualifiers. This feels unfair to other teams. Even if BRO barely makes it in, they will be quickly eliminated. It would be better if the two lowest-ranked teams from each group were eliminated directly, ensuring higher quality in the qualifiers instead of all one-sided quick matches.

Conclusion:

NS’s victory for the Great Dragon group is critical. As long as T1 and GEN both win, they will qualify directly for playoffs. Xu Ge is also in danger; BFX’s tiebreakers trail DK’s by only one point. If DK is swept by T1, Xu Ge will have to play the qualifiers. For DK to secure their spot, they must win at least two smaller games against T1.

So, what do you think — can HLE take at least one game off GEN?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!