A detailed analysis of the Lakers' four major uncertainties: How to build a roster around Doncic? What options does LeBron have?

On August 7, Beijing time, ESPN published a lengthy article detailing the four major uncertainties facing the Lakers, including how to construct a roster around Doncic and LeBron's future.

In May, during a dinner with Lakers' basketball operations chief Pelinka and head coach Redick, Doncic made this clear while discussing their futures. "I don't want to wait," a source familiar with the conversation told ESPN, as Doncic stated at the table, "I've tasted the Finals, and I want to get back there. So we need to give it our all right now."

As the NBA enters an unprecedented era of competition—with seven different champions in the past seven years—the question arises: Can the Lakers, supported by the financial backing of new billionaire owner Walter, break this trend in the Doncic era?

Uncertainty 1: How should the Lakers build a roster around Doncic?

Common wisdom suggests that there are two types of players best suited to partner with Doncic, and data supports this notion.

The first type is a center who combines strength with rim-running ability. According to on-off data, the combination of Doncic and Powell ranked third among all active duos during Doncic's time with the Mavericks. When a capable big man is present, Doncic thrives in pick-and-roll situations because he can choose to lob the ball. According to tracking data from GeniusIQ, since entering the league, Doncic ranks second in assists for dunks per 100 possessions, only behind his draft classmate Trae Young.

The second type is elite shooters. GeniusIQ data shows that, to date in his career, Doncic has generated the most corner three-point attempts among all passers in the league. However, such players are scarce in the Lakers' roster. Among the projected rotation players, Hachimura and bench players Laravia and Knoket are among the few who have exceeded the league average for corner three-point shooting percentage over the past five seasons.

In the coming years, finding shooters may be easier for the Lakers than acquiring quality two-way big men. Currently, the supply of shooters in the NBA is abundant, and these players typically command lower salaries. For example, Kennard (who ranked fourth in corner three-point shooting percentage over the past five seasons, with at least 100 attempts) signed a one-year, $11 million contract with the Hawks this summer; Powell (ranked eighth) was traded for minimal assets; and Seth Curry (ranked ninth) remains a free agent (reportedly preparing to sign a minimum deal with the Warriors). If the Lakers are interested, they might easily acquire players like Grayson Allen (ranked tenth) or Hauser (ranked twelfth) through trades.

Reliable big men are much scarcer. The Lakers' new center Ayton is a decent option in the short term, but not perfect. While he was an excellent pick-and-roll partner for Paul during his time with the Suns, Ayton lacks the vertical athleticism of Powell, and his intensity can be inconsistent.

However, there are two perspectives on the long-term future of the Lakers' center position. One view is that the Lakers need a top-tier big man to match Doncic's talent, but acquiring an All-Star caliber center could be quite challenging for Los Angeles. The opposing view suggests that Doncic is so gifted that he can make any rim-running center a significant threat—after all, Powell was still a rookie when he and Doncic created magic together.

As for the compatibility between LeBron and Doncic, even though LeBron is neither a traditional three-point shooter nor a rim-running center, Doncic has shown the ability to collaborate with another skilled ball handler. During his time with the Mavericks, Doncic and Kyrie Irving reached the Finals together, and before Jalen Brunson exploded into a superstar with the New York Knicks, Doncic had already led him to the Western Conference Finals.

Uncertainty 2: What are the Lakers' next steps?

With Doncic signing a contract extension, the most important task for the next few summers has been completed. However, aside from the discussions surrounding LeBron's future, perhaps the most complex issue for the Lakers moving forward is the future of Reeves.

This 27-year-old guard is a "comeback story," having grown from an undrafted player to averaging 20.2 points and 5.8 assists last season, with a career three-point shooting percentage of 37%. But with Reeves set to become a free agent next summer, how much will it cost to retain him? Is it worth it for the Lakers to spend that money?

"I believe he will earn over $30 million per year," an executive told ESPN, which aligns with the views of several team executives questioned about Reeves' next contract amount.

This executive and others expect that Reeves will ultimately return to Los Angeles, solidifying his role as Doncic's long-term backcourt partner—a role previously occupied by Brunson and Irving during his time in Dallas.

However, the tone of negotiations and Reeves' positioning in the Lakers' long-term plans may depend on his performance next spring. In April, during the Lakers' first-round playoff series loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Reeves struggled, averaging over nine three-point attempts with a shooting percentage of only 31.9% and nearly three turnovers per game.

"This season is crucial for him," said an assistant coach from a Western team, "He must perform well in the playoffs because he needs to prove he has enough skill to partner with Doncic."

Undoubtedly, the most logical way to build a roster around Doncic is to combine him with a rim-running center, and more importantly, surround him with multiple "3D" wing players—Doncic has already proven he can maximize the abilities of such players.

"Unless he plans to play off the ball," said a scout regarding Doncic, "this is the way to build a team around him."

However, the Lakers are not the only team seeking two-way wing players, who are the most sought-after commodities in the league. Although the Lakers may have ample salary cap space and up to three first-round picks available, it does not guarantee that they will acquire the players they desire. Additionally, Doncic needs to be "hidden" on defense, which adds another layer of complexity to roster construction.

The Lakers will have up to eight free agents next summer. Will this expiring salary become a tool for Pelinka to upgrade the roster for this season and beyond?

Uncertainty 3: How do the Lakers' salary cap space and draft pick situation affect the future?

The Lakers' roster-building process can be divided into three phases: the present, next offseason, and 2027.

Currently, the Lakers are in a stagnant phase of filling the last roster spot. Since the Lakers signed Ayton and Laravia using the full mid-level exception, their salaries have been constrained by the hard cap at the first luxury tax line. Although there is one spot open, they cannot sign the 15th player until January 18. However, after addressing positional needs—signing Ayton, Laravia, Marcus Smart, and Hayes, and then extending Doncic—Pelinka's roster overhaul is not yet complete.

"We are satisfied with the upgrades to our roster," Pelinka said at the press conference announcing Doncic's extension, "but we will never be satisfied with just that. I believe we are constantly working to enhance the team's strength and compete for a championship every year, and we will remain dedicated to this effort."

While the Lakers face some restrictions in trades (LeBron has veto power, and Ayton, Smart, Hayes, and Laravia cannot be traded until December 15), contracts for Hachimura, Kleber, and Vincent will all expire in the 2025-26 season, totaling $40 million.

Pelinka has always been active in trades, acquiring Anthony Davis during the 2019 offseason and trading for Doncic this past February. However, the next major trade may face an obstacle due to the Lakers' lack of first-round picks.

While the Lakers can swap a first-round pick every year except for 2027 and 2029, they currently have only one tradable first-round pick: either 2031 or 2032. (Their only tradable second-round pick won't be available until 2032.) Starting in the 2026 offseason, their tradable first-round picks will increase to two: 2031 and 2033.

The futures of Hachimura, Kleber, Vincent, and LeBron will impact the Lakers' financial flexibility next offseason. If none of these four players are on the team, the Lakers could have $45 million in salary cap space. This figure also includes the salary cap space reserved for Reeves if he declines his $14.9 million player option.

Ironically, the top player in next year's free agent market may very well be LeBron himself. (Kevin Durant could also become a free agent, but only if he fails to reach an extension with the Rockets, although this scenario is unlikely.)

"I think the first thing we need to do is respect his and his family's decision on how long he plans to play," Pelinka said regarding LeBron's future.

Ideally, these expiring contracts would be converted into players who can help now and next season, even if it means having no salary cap space for the first time since 2019. This way, the Lakers could have nearly $100 million in salary cap space in 2027.

In the summer of 2027, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell, and former Lakers player Davis could all become free agents. The allure of playing alongside Doncic, the Los Angeles market, the new owner, and available salary cap space could combine to create a favorable outcome.

However, under the current labor agreement, relying on salary cap space and attempting to outbid competitors poses risks. Since players can re-sign with their teams for higher salaries, there's no guarantee that any All-NBA player will enter the free agent market.

Uncertainty 4: What options does LeBron have?

As for LeBron, aside from a statement from his long-time agent Rich Paul after LeBron chose to exercise his $52.6 million contract this season, and Pelinka's comments at Doncic's press conference, there has been little other news regarding his future.

"We want to respect his right to determine his own timeline. I think that is very important. But if he has the opportunity to retire as a Lakers player, that would be fantastic," Pelinka said when discussing LeBron.

If the goal is to reserve salary cap space for 2027, retiring as a Lakers player likely means LeBron would need to sign a one-year contract. Since his contract includes a no-trade clause, at least for this season, if he wants to play for another team, the decision is in his hands.

In an unlikely scenario, if LeBron requests a trade, finding a suitable trading partner might be a challenge.

His former team, the Cavaliers, are nearing the second luxury tax line and are not allowed to combine outgoing contracts. If LeBron's contract is bought out, the Cavaliers also cannot sign him during the regular season.

On the other hand, the Mavericks are below the second luxury tax line, but acquiring LeBron would likely require trading half their roster.

The Warriors have not hit the luxury tax line, but their salary structure is top-heavy, with Butler being the only viable trade asset.

The Knicks have Towns' $53.1 million contract, but that would mean the Lakers would have to take on the center's $118 million salary after next year.

When LeBron becomes a free agent next summer, many teams will be eager to sign him. The nearby Clippers may have enough funds to sign him directly, allowing him to pair with Leonard. Additionally, teams like Cleveland, New York, and Dallas, which are championship contenders, can only offer veteran minimum contracts in the free agent market. The Warriors could provide the full mid-level exception.

But keep in mind, when LeBron's contract with the Lakers expires, his on-court earnings will reach $584 million. This raises the question: Is the opportunity to win another championship ring more important than another massive paycheck?