ESPN explains the Rockets offseason in detail: three advantages can chase the supergiant Ethan Xiaojia is eligible for a contract extension

On May 5, Beijing time, the Rockets lost to the Warriors in the seventh game and were eliminated from the competition. ESPN salary expert Marks then broke down the Rockets' offseason in detail, pointing out that the Rockets have three key advantages if they are to pursue superstars like Durant or Antetokounmpo. In addition, the Rockets are also considering renewing the young contracts on the team, and this offseason, Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. will be eligible for contract extensions.

Results 2024-2025:52-30, losing 3-4 to the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs

June Draft Picks:First-round pick from the Suns (3.8% probability), 59th pick (from the Thunder)

Free Agent:VanVleet (Team Option), Adams, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday (Team Option), Tate, McVeigh (Restricted Free Agent), Dent (Restricted Free Agent)

Lineup Status:

As the No. 2 seed in the West but eliminated in the first round, it was undoubtedly a failure. But looking at the big picture — considering where the team is after trading Harden in 2021 — it's clear that the Rockets have far exceeded expectations this season. The team has had a tough season of 17, 20 and 22 wins since Harden's departure, winning 41 games last year and 52 this year.

Now, the real test is how well the Rockets' management and coaching staff evaluate the current roster and address the shortcomings that the team has exposed in the playoffs. This line of thinking should be very different from the regular season, when Houston reasonably adopted a conservative approach to roster adjustments.

"We certainly want this team to perform at its best this year and then evaluate it at the end of the season," General Manager Stone said in December, "but we're very hopeful that this core squad will lead us to achieve our goals...... From a trading point of view, our main work is largely done. ”

Under the leadership of coach Udoka, the Rockets have developed a defensive system (ranked fifth in the league in defensive efficiency this season) and are well-positioned to succeed for at least the next few seasons. The team will build on the existing roster and welcome a top-10 draft pick from the Suns. Players expected to return next season include Shin Kyung, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Ethan, Jalen Green, Dillon, VanVleet, and last year's lotto pick Reed Shepherd. However, center Adams could enter the free agent market and leave.

The question now is, will the continuity of the squad alone be enough to support the team to challenge for the championship?

Offseason Financials:

VanVleet's $44.9 million team option will affect the Rockets' operational flexibility this offseason. Teams have five days after the final game of the playoffs to decide whether or not to exercise the option. If the Suns' first-round pick is counted and VanVleet's option is exercised, Houston would be $7.5 million above the luxury tax line, just touching the first line. The Rockets could also decline to exercise that option and then sign VanVleet to a long-term contract at a lower salary.

If VanVleet's option were to be exercised, the Rockets would still have some financial room to maneuver because they still have $12 million in non-guaranteed contracts (Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale). The Rockets have until June 30 to decide whether to guarantee Landale's $8 million contract and exercise Holiday with a $4.9 million team option.

Management's top priority: The Rockets' first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors should make the team think deeply about two issues.

First, are you confident that your current roster with a top-10 draft pick will develop into a team that doesn't just excel in the regular season?Their regular season scoring leader, Jalen Green, averaged six fewer points per game in the first round than he did in the regular season, shooting just 37.2 percent from the field and 31.2 percent from three-point range (he scored just eight points and had five turnovers in the fourth loss).

In the first three losses, the Rockets trailed their opponents 10-22 in key points. In the regular season, the Rockets had a 26-18 record in crunch time, tied with the Cavaliers for the most crunch wins in the league.

This leads to the second question:Do the Rockets need a star who has been named to the All-Star team, such as Durant of the Suns, or even the Bucks' Antetokounmpo, to make a breakthrough for the team? If they decide to chase the stars, the Rockets have three key advantages——

Draft assets: They have five tradable first-round picks over the next seven years, including this year's Suns first-round pick, as well as unprotected first-round picks in 2027 (from the Suns) and 2029 (from the Suns or the Dallas Mavericks). In addition, the Rockets can trade for first-round picks in 2028, 2030 and 2032.

Manageable Contracts: The Rockets have five players (Jabari Smith Jr., Eason, Shepard, Whitmore, and Amen Thompson) on first-round rookie contracts.

Big Contracts: Shin Kyung and Green completed rookie contract extensions last October. The "poison clause" restriction in their contract will be lifted on July 2, when the two will be eligible to trade. Both players will be paid $33 million next season. Dillon has two years left on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million, respectively).

In addition, retaining Adams should also be a priority for the team. In the series against the Warriors, the Rockets were the best when Adams and Shin Kyung were paired up. In the playoffs, the team won by 30.7 points per 100 possessions when both were on the court at the same time, and during the regular season, that figure was 30 points.

Renewal candidates to watch:

For the second consecutive offseason, the Rockets have two players eligible for rookie contract extensions until Oct. 22. (Last year, it was Shin Kyung and Green, and this year it's Smith Jr. and Ethan).

Smith Jr. started 194 games in the first three seasons of his career, but was replaced by Amen Thompson later in the season. In 19 games off the bench, Smith Jr. shot 49.2 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from three-point range, and the Rockets outscored 7.9 points per 100 possessions while he was on the floor.

Eason is averaging career-high points (12.0 points), assists (1.5), steals (1.7), blocks (0.9) and shooting percentage (49%) per game this season. With the Rockets' total salary next season nearly $80 million below the luxury tax line, they could be more aggressive in negotiating contract extensions with both players.

Team Needs:

If Adams leaves in the free agent market, the Rockets need to bring in a center. In addition, it is imperative for Shepard to develop into a regular rotation player. Shepard has averaged 12.6 minutes per game this season and has been inconsistent from the outside. In three games with the Vipers in the G League, Shepard averaged 30.7 points and 8.3 assists per game.

Draft Assets:

The Houston Rockets have eight future first-round picks, five of which are tradable over the next seven years. The Rockets are required to send the Thunder a top-four protected first-round pick in 2026, but retain their own first-round pick in 2027 (and have a swap pick with the Nets that year). The Suns will give the Rockets an unprotected 2027 first-round pick. In 2029, the Rockets have two of the more favorable first-round picks for the Rockets, Mavericks and Suns, and the team has seven second-round picks available.