NBA Second Half Viewing Guide: Seven Major Questions Await Answers — Are the Cavaliers Truly Ready?

On February 19th Beijing time, after several days off, the second half of the 2025-26 season will kick off on February 20th. ESPN has released a viewing guide for this period, outlining seven major questions to be answered. The specifics are as follows—

1. Who is the biggest threat to the Thunder in the playoffs?

That depends on the health status of the Denver Nuggets. In last season’s Western Conference semifinals, the Nuggets forced the Thunder into a decisive Game 7. Like the Thunder, the Nuggets have also struggled with injuries this season, but the revamped front office has assembled the strongest supporting cast of Nikola Jokić’s career — provided all key players can make it to the playoffs.

Spurs fans have every reason to contest this answer, as the team led by Victor Wembanyama has beaten the Thunder 4-1 this season, including three wins in just 12 days during December when the Thunder were relatively healthy. However, the Spurs’ lack of playoff experience raises doubts about their ability to break through in the Western Conference.

2. Which Eastern Conference team is the dark horse?

It’s hard to label the Cavaliers as a dark horse since their record already places them near the top of the East. Excluding the Cavaliers (especially after acquiring Harden and boosting their hype), the Celtics appear to be the biggest wildcard, with a future even more unpredictable than the 76ers.

Jayson Tatum has been sidelined due to an Achilles injury sustained last postseason, yet the Celtics still hold second place in the East. If Tatum returns (which seems likely), the already intense Eastern Conference race could become even more chaotic.

No one can predict if Tatum will immediately adjust to the high-intensity play, but the Celtics possess explosive three-point shooting and rank second in offensive efficiency league-wide. Jalen Brown is also in great form, averaging 29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. They might not need Tatum at his peak. As long as Tatum contributes on defense, rebounds, and spot-up shooting, the Celtics could easily advance past two playoff rounds.

3. How much guaranteed money will Zion secure?

Zion Williamson is a key focus. This season marks the third time in his six-year career that he has played at least 41 games, a crucial threshold for both him and the Pelicans. His 2022 five-year, $197.2 million contract extension includes clauses based on games played and weight; failing to meet these lowers future salary guarantees. For example, missing more than 22 games in 2024-25 would cause his $42.2 million salary in 2026-27 to become non-guaranteed.

If he meets the following criteria, his salary next season can become partially or fully guaranteed:

Playing over 41 games: guarantees $16,866,604

Playing over 51 games: additional $8,433,302 guaranteed

Playing over 61 games: additional $8,433,302 guaranteed

Meeting weight requirements: additional $8,433,302 guaranteed

He has already played 40 games this season. On Saturday against the Bucks, as long as he appears on the court, his guaranteed salary will jump from zero to $16.86 million. Also, unless waived, his salary will become fully guaranteed on July 16.

4. Are we witnessing LeBron’s final moments with the Lakers?

At 41, LeBron’s future has never been more uncertain. He has repeatedly expressed doubt about playing next season and will become an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Sources told ESPN that if LeBron wants to play a 24th season, the Lakers would warmly welcome his return. Lakers’ basketball operations president and GM Rob Pelinka stated before the season that they hope LeBron retires as a Laker. This includes both retiring in 2026 and the possibility of playing through 2027.

If he returns, his salary will directly impact what kind of roster the Lakers can build.

LeBron’s salary this season is $52.6 million. He voluntarily took a $2.7 million pay cut on his last contract, but a significant salary reduction this summer would mark a completely different negotiation strategy for his career.

5. Who will win the tanking battle?

There will be slight shifts in the upper rankings of both conferences, but playoff teams are mostly set. The real fierce competition starts mid-April, but until then, all eyes will be on the teams openly tanking, trying every tactic to gain a few extra ping-pong balls for the May draft lottery.

Also, the top rookies in this draft class — Dalen Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, and others — will shine on the NCAA stage in March. NBA fans searching for the next superstar will pay close attention to them.

6. What does the future hold for Giannis and the Bucks?

The Bucks are trying to salvage their 13-year partnership, but before his future becomes the biggest news this summer again, no one knows what else they can do. After the All-Star break, the Bucks are 23-30, ranking 12th in the East.

Giannis has not played since injuring his right calf on January 24 but is expected to return in the coming weeks, attempting to drag the Bucks into the playoffs by force. Will he succeed? Will the Bucks abandon the playoff chase to tank for a better draft pick? Or are we witnessing Giannis’s final months with Milwaukee?

7. Are the Cavaliers truly ready?

The Cavaliers have won 10 of their last 11 games and recently acquired Harden in a trade to replace the frequently injured Garland. Both salary-wise and talent-wise, this sends a clear message: the Cavs are aiming for success right now.

The shadow of playoff losses over the past two years still looms, and they are gambling on Harden despite his reputation for underperforming in the postseason. Currently fourth in the East and only 1.5 games behind second place, they are likely to face the Knicks or Celtics in the second round.

Mitchell is quietly delivering the best season of his career. If he and Harden can gel in the final two months, they have a chance to reach second place in the East and raise playoff expectations significantly. This time, are they genuinely prepared, or will history repeat itself?