Is Wembanyama already securing the DPOY? Playing all 65 games is tough, and a robbery scene might happen again.

The conversation about the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) almost inevitably includes Wembanyama from the start. If you ask 100 NBA experts, "Who is the top defender in the league?" roughly 90 of them will immediately bring up this French player from the Spurs. Theoretically, he is a strong candidate to win this year and could potentially claim the title repeatedly for the next seven to eight years.

But looking at the numbers, it's not that easy for Wembanyama to claim the award. Before debating whether he is the best defender in the league, he must first play at least 65 games to qualify. Last season, among 569 players who appeared in games, only 169 played at least 65 games, which is less than 30%. Of course, comparing him to "10-day contract players" is unfair, so let's narrow the scope:Last season, there were 271 players who started at least 10 games, considered "stable NBA-level players." Even among this group, only 140 players (just over half) played 65 or more games, and obviously, most of them did not have to recover from blood clot issues.

This indicates that even for an average NBA player, playing 65 games is not a given, let alone for Wembanyama who also faces injury risks.

Although it sounds unlikely now, there is a reasonable chance that Wembanyama could lose the DPOY. Last season, Mobley won the award with his team’s defense ranked 8th in the league — which was an exception, since from 2008 to 2023, all DPOY winners played on teams ranked in the top five defensively. Looking at Wembanyama: before his injury last season, the Spurs’ defensive efficiency was only 19th in the league; although the team defense was top-five level when he was on the floor, most DPOY candidates show similar "defensive improvement when on court," while judges usually consider the "team’s overall defensive level."

Of course, if we make predictions now, Wembanyama would be the DPOY pick for almost everyone — honestly, choosing anyone else would seem unprofessional. He is more likely to win than any other individual player, and some might say "his priority should surpass all other candidates combined." But over a six-month season, many things can go wrong.

Next, let's take a look at who else might win the Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2025-26 season besides Wembanyama.

Currently, Holmgren is clearly the second favorite. However, he also faces the risk of not playing 65 games, and even if he meets that mark, the Thunder’s defensive stats make his case weak — last season, with Holmgren on the floor, the Thunder’s defensive efficiency was 105.6; without him, it was 105.9, almost no difference. Even if he truly is the league’s second-best defender (which many doubt), judges will easily find reasons to reject him, so his chances are about the same as other candidates.

Excluding Holmgren, there are three main candidates left, who would be considered "dark horses" compared to Wembanyama —

Dyson Daniels: He might have missed his best chance last season. This year, his impressive steal and deflection stats might look more "average," and Trae Young’s teams have never ranked better than 18th in defensive efficiency. Without solid team defense backing him, Daniels will struggle to win genuine support from the judges.

Amen Thompson: Experts predicted last season that he could win DPOY. Amen’s talent is definitely up to par, and a few weeks ago, more people might have supported him. But with VanVleet injured, the Rockets will likely increase Amen’s offensive responsibilities significantly, and to balance that, the team might reduce his defensive load — after all, there are enough wings on the team who can cover defensively in short stints. He will remain a good defender, but with heavier burdens, his chances of winning have dropped.

Evan Mobley: He just won the DPOY last season, and in his career, he has only had one season with fewer than 65 games played. Also, the Cavaliers are in a relatively weak Eastern Conference and could easily secure a good ranking; moreover, DPOY is a "repeat-friendly" award: in the past 30 years, Mutombo, Ben Wallace, Howard, and Gobert have all won it at least three times. Judges highly value "past reputation," so if Wembanyama again falls short of 65 games, it is entirely plausible that without any standout performances from others, the judges will default to the defending champion.

Do you think Wembanyama will be named Defensive Player of the Year this season? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.