After Kuminga's contract extension, three major uncertainties remain: starter or bench player? Warriors might replay the Russell scenario.

On October 1st Beijing time, nearly 23-year-old Kuminga agreed to a 2-year, $48.5 million deal with the Warriors, with the second year as a team option. It seems the drama around Kuminga has finally settled, but in reality, it hasn’t. The well-known US media CBS Sports points out there are still three big questions to be answered.

1. Will Kuminga still be traded?

The wise guess is “yes.” Besides owner Lacob, it appears no one on the Warriors is truly committed to keeping Kuminga, while Kuminga himself has tried every way to leave the team. This is a “marriage of convenience” — whenever an opportunity arises that benefits the Warriors for a breakup, they will likely push for a trade immediately.

However, before that happens, both sides have strong incentives for Kuminga to perform well. For the Warriors, if Kuminga plays impressively, they either keep a “cost-effective contract” core player who can help in the playoffs or gain a valuable trade asset. For Kuminga, this period is a “tryout for his next contract”: this is why he chose a two-year deal instead of the Warriors’ initial three-year offer (with the third year as a team option) — he wants to secure free agent status one year earlier. Also, compared to opting for a “one-year $7.9 million qualifying offer,” the “second year guaranteed” clause in this contract makes him more attractive to potential trade teams during the season.

In summary, the structure of this contract itself leaves open the possibility of trading Kuminga anytime before the February trade deadline. This is very similar to the summer of 2019: when the Warriors acquired Russell through the Durant sign-and-trade, they never truly intended to keep him. Russell didn’t fit the Warriors’ system, and regardless of public statements, trading him was always the real plan. Now with Kuminga, the Warriors are likely running the same script, and the extension just buys them more time.

2. What will Kuminga’s role be?

This question is quite intriguing. In the first few months of the season, will the Warriors prioritize “using Kuminga in the way that best benefits the team” or “highlighting his strengths to boost his trade value”?

Kuminga has publicly expressed his desire for a starting spot, but it’s very unlikely he will get it. Even though center Horford is a “pure shooter center” (which could be an important upgrade for the Warriors’ championship hopes), Curry alone commands attention equivalent to “1.5 players,” and it’s hard to fit three “non-shooters” in one lineup — Butler and Green already occupy two spots, so the fifth starter role is more likely to go to a better shooter like Bajomski or even Hield.

However, Coach Kerr stated this summer that he is more willing to try a “Butler + Kuminga” lineup this season. Last season after Butler joined, Kerr almost excluded Kuminga from the rotation due to “lack of spacing with the two playing together”; but when Curry was injured and Kerr had no other choice, Kuminga proved in the series against the Timberwolves that with confidence and aggression, he can mesh with any teammate.

Therefore, the key is not whether Kuminga starts or closes games, but whether “he can be placed on the floor where he can maximize his strengths.” If Kerr insists on using Kuminga as a “off-ball cutter and occasional secondary scorer” (a role Kuminga feels undervalues his talent), even knowing “playing well helps his next contract,” it’s hard not to doubt Kuminga’s commitment to that role — he might respond passively or even hope the Warriors trade him cheaply because they “cannot tolerate the status quo.”

But if Kuminga feels “valued” (even in small ways), starts strong, enjoys a good team atmosphere, and maintains confidence, he has full potential to compete for “Best Sixth Man.” For the Warriors, this would be the ideal outcome — even if Kuminga himself might dislike the “sixth man” label.

3. How much can Kuminga contribute to the Warriors?

The answer is “a great deal,” no matter what others say. He is the only player on the Warriors who combines “athleticism, strong ball-handling creation, and finishing above the rim,” while this team leans heavily on veterans. Kuminga’s explosiveness could be the key factor to change the game for a championship-contending team.

Admittedly, the Warriors did not trade Kuminga this summer partly because they “did not receive enough return,” but some inside the team clearly recognize Kuminga’s potential and are reluctant to give up on the chance he can deliver consistent performances.

If Kuminga truly fulfills his potential, the Warriors’ strength will be formidable — they already have the other necessary pieces for a title run: Horford’s signing is significant; Curry and Butler were one of the league’s top duos before Curry’s second-round injury; Butler has shown he is unwilling to take the primary scoring role without Curry on the floor, so if Kuminga can take on that responsibility and remain with the team after the trade deadline, the Warriors could rise from “second-tier contenders” to “top championship favorites.”