VanVleet's season-ending injury triggers a chain reaction! Five major impacts that could reshape the landscape: Durant’s status faces a challenge

On September 23rd Beijing time, renowned US media B/R analyzed the ripple effects of VanVleet’s season-ending injury. They believe that without VanVleet, the Rockets’ standing among the “title contenders” is no longer as solid as before.

As the team’s main point guard and central offensive facilitator, his injury impacts the Rockets significantly and may also shift the competitive balance among several NBA teams. Here are B/R’s five key consequences—

1. Shepard shifts from a potential prospect to an immediate essential player

Thanks to his outstanding advanced stats during his sole season at Kentucky, Shepard was picked third overall in the 2024 NBA Draft. However, when he initially joined the Rockets, he wasn’t considered an “immediate necessity” — the Rockets acquired this high pick in a 2021 trade with the Nets when their backcourt was already deep, featuring VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks.

Now the situation has completely reversed: following Durant’s trade, Green and Dillon have left the Rockets; VanVleet will be sidelined for the foreseeable future. In Durant’s 37-year-old season, if the Rockets want to remain championship contenders, Shepard must achieve a significant leap in development.

Admittedly, Sengun will take on more playmaking duties, and Amen and Durant can support initiating offense, but Shepard’s college record (8.4 assists, 4.6 steals, 4.3 made threes per 100 possessions, with a 52.1% three-point shooting rate) shows he is the best fit to fill the “point guard vacancy.” Now, he will have ample opportunity to prove his capabilities.

2. The Western Conference Finals might become a “Nuggets vs Thunder” exclusive showdown

In last season’s Game 7 of the playoffs, although the Thunder were not seriously threatened, the 2023 champions Nuggets were the closest team in the Western Conference to ending the Thunder’s historic run.

During the offseason, the Nuggets made top-tier roster upgrades (possibly second only to the Durant-acquiring Rockets): Cameron Johnson replaced Porter Jr. in the starting lineup — both have similar outside shooting, but Johnson offers more complete offensive skills (especially as a play initiator) and more agile defense; moreover, the Nuggets’ bench, long considered a weakness, was significantly strengthened by adding Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Valančiūnas, greatly improving rotation depth.

Originally, the Nuggets, Rockets, and Thunder were seen as the Western Conference’s “big three,” with two of them likely meeting in the conference finals. But with VanVleet sidelined, the Rockets have clearly fallen behind the Nuggets and Thunder, potentially forcing them into tough battles with other fringe contenders like the Timberwolves, Lakers, and Clippers.

3. Durant’s historical standing faces a test

Although it may sound somewhat alarmist, VanVleet’s injury could indeed impact Durant’s legacy — at least making it harder for him to shake off the narrative of declining competitiveness after leaving the Warriors.

Since departing the Warriors in 2019, Durant has played for three teams (Nets, Suns, Rockets). Despite spending two seasons in the Eastern Conference, he has never advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs. Now, without VanVleet, the Rockets’ chances of making a deep playoff run have become much slimmer.

Over the past two seasons, when VanVleet was on the court, the Rockets outscored opponents by 4.2 points per 100 possessions; when he was off, they were outscored by 0.2 points per 100 possessions. While VanVleet is not a superstar, his playing style complements Durant perfectly: he can initiate offense, create opportunities for himself and teammates, and is willing to play off-ball alongside high-usage wings/forwards.

Of course, Shepard or Amen still have the potential to “break out” and help the Rockets remain competitive, but compared to before VanVleet’s injury, the team’s ceiling has shifted from “likely contenders” to “theoretically possible.”

Some reporters already believe that with VanVleet’s severe injury, Durant’s likelihood of re-signing with the Rockets is decreasing.

4. Multiple players get a “breakout window”

No team can remain “unscathed” after losing their starting point guard, but the Rockets might be among the closest to a “smooth transition.”

Center Sengun is already set to take on more of the “primary playmaker” role; Amen Thompson has solid passing skills and, combined with his defensive strengths and likely increased shot attempts, could even contend for an All-Star spot; additionally, Jabari Smith Jr. and Eason, though not yet elite scorers, will receive more chances to shine.

More importantly, these players’ styles break traditional positional boundaries — although Amen, Sengun, Shepard, and Durant are not “traditional point guards,” the Rockets’ distributed playmaking ability across the roster still offers a chance to cover the void left by VanVleet’s absence.

5. Sengun faces a “Jokic-style” transformation moment

The 23-year-old Rockets starting center Sengun was selected to his first All-Star game last season; recently, at the European Championship, he led Turkey to a silver medal, averaging 30.5 minutes, 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game.

With Durant joining, Sengun was already destined to be one of the focal points next season; now, with VanVleet injured, he may need to fully emulate Denver’s Jokic and take on the role of an “all-around core.”

In the 2024-25 season, VanVleet led the team with 5.6 assists per game. Sengun may not fully replicate that number, but if he adds even 3 assists more, his average would reach about 8 per game. Moreover, if he maintains last season’s 19.1 points and 10.3 rebounds, and helps keep the VanVleet-less Rockets in championship contention, he could even become a fringe MVP candidate.

Of course, given the era of Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis, Sengun winning the MVP is almost impossible, but earning fourth or fifth place votes is not out of the question.