Should the Pittsburgh Pirates trade away Lun Skins? Don't rush just yet

The Pirates have had few bright spots this season, struggling on the offensive end, finishing at the bottom of the National League in points scored, home runs and OPS. With the exception of Oneil Cruz, the OPS stats for multiple players in the line only start with five or six.

When Paul Skenes threw his first career clean sheet last Sunday and lost 1-0, it was no surprise.

The team's dismal 12-26 start led to the sacking of coach Derek Shelton. Although the MLB Pipeline ranked the Pirate Farm System No. 14 earlier this season, it seems unlikely that there will be any top hitter who can immediately support the major leagues in the short term.

This brings us back to Skins, a 3-5 10-game starter who has a low ERA of 2.44, an ERA+ of 174 and 78 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. The Pirates scored just 14 points in his seven starting losses.

The ace pitcher, who has a pre-arbitration career, is the team's most valuable asset, as Skins' current salary is a fraction of that of a top starting pitcher. It was supposed to be the perfect time for the Pirates to bolster the star, but management only signed a handful of one-year contracts this winter, and those signings didn't turn a turn in what was seen as an open competition in the League of Nations Central Division.

Since 2018, the Pirates have not tasted more than half of the chance. The 2023 No. 1 pick for E-Skinsburn is seen as the start of a new era, and although the youngster has lived up to expectations (or even exceeded expectations) since landing in the major leagues last May, the team's record has not improved.

It all leads to a brutal question – Pittsburgh fans, maybe you need to be prepared.

Should pirates consider trading Skins?

"I think the more critical question is: what is the team's plan? Is management consistent with what they say and do? "If they really want to compete in the prime of the likes of Spins, Cruz, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, etc., they should invest more." "

With more than four years in control, Skins will be the hottest trade target in recent years. Considering the huge chips the Nationals regained in 2022 when Juan Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining, trading Skins could set a record return and give the Pirates a multi-potential stock to help rebuild.

"Returns may be at record trading highs," another League of Nations executive admitted, "but there doesn't seem to be a need to move forward before the 2026 trade deadline." "

One Midland executive opposed an immediate deal, but acknowledged the risk of future injuries or a dip in form: "If you make a move now, the return could be 1.5 times that of a Soto deal." But the reality is that few teams offer so much quality chips. The Red Sox, for example, might have to pull out Triston Casas, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Tanner Houck — the assumption that made me wonder if Pittsburgh really called and asked. "

This case may seem exaggerated, but does it match the value of Spins? An ace of this caliber is a rarity, not to mention the scarcity of control for the remaining four years.

"He's still the cornerstone of the team, and the real trump card is hard to come by," a third League executive analyzed, "but if they choose to trade, they can ask for sky-high prices." Joining a championship team could change the course of the World Series directly, and the next family that has been in control for many years is willing to gamble on the future. It had to be a deal that changed the fate of the team. "

"Trading would be an admission that he won't be able to compete until 2030," one Midland executive questioned, "The rewards may be huge, but can they really be more valuable than his own contributions?" "

The Royals traded 26-year-old Ceylon to Zack Greinke before the 2011 season in exchange for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jake Odorizzi. At that time, the royal family had won less than half of the seven consecutive years. Two years later, Kane and Escobar became the core of the 2014-15 World Series champions, and Odorici was traded for Wade Davis and James Shields. This case shows that smart trading can speed up reconstruction.

Multiple executives believe trading Skins would spark a fan "riot": "As a team you need to think about, but as a brand you can't. Management must weigh the impact of this signal on the fans. "

The 2018 trade for 2018 and 2011 champion Gerrit Cole is a cause for caution. Kerr had two years left in control in exchange for two rookies, Colin Moran, Jason Martin and pitchers like Joe Musgrove. A 2.60 trade at Kerr's 2015 19-8 ERA could have paid off even more, but the Pirates were in the playoffs at 98 at the time, so they naturally wouldn't have considered it.

Can Skins replicate Kerr's miracle of helping the team advance to the wild card series for three consecutive years in 2013-15? "Sometimes teams rise more than expected," one American League executive noted, "and the Detroit Tigers are proof of that — who knew they would rise two years ago?" Tarik Skubal's Tigers are at the end of the 2023 farm system rating, but they are in the weak zone. Perhaps the pirates should follow the Glow's lead and hold on to the Spinns for a few years before trading them at any other opportunity. "

Rays have long pursued this strategy, striking as David Price, James Shields, Matt Garza, Chris Archer and others approach the vintage. Ironically, the Pirates traded Archer in 2018 for Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz and Austin Meadows, which could have avoided the decline of recent years.

"Decisions have to be decisive," concluded one of the last American League executives, "and Skins is the key to the future of the team, both as a cornerstone and as a trade chip." The pirates need a clear direction: should they build a team around him, or will they trade him for rebuilding resources? It's a decision that will define the next decade of Pittsburgh baseball. "