San Diego Padres outfielder Tartis Jr. is getting back to the top

Fernando Tatis Jr. is getting back to his peak form. For the first time since the 2021 42-25 Raids season, the Padres' right fielder has shown the style of a superstar in his early 20s who has shocked the major leagues. After 80 bans and wrist surgeries in 2022, Tatis has been outstanding in the past two seasons (0.796 attack index and 7.3 WAR in 243 games), but not as dominant as before. This season, he posted a career-best 0.333 batting average/0.406 batting average/0.624 batting average, 8 hits, 7 robbers and 1.7 WAR (top-five in the league) to help the Padres lead the competitive National League West with 17 wins and 8 losses.

Ball selection evolves
Referring to the 2023 National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., who significantly reduced his strikeout rate, Tatis achieved a similar breakthrough this season:

"I'm more mature in the strike zone," Tatis told AJ Cassavell for MLB.com, "and combining batting ability with selection discipline is just the beginning." Its strikeout rate jumped from an all-time high of 49th percentile to 82nd percentile, and its swing rate increased to 40th percentile (20-30 percentile in the first two seasons).

Dominance of the center of the ball in the good ball area
Against the red mid-game, Tatis is hitting a league-high +15 points value this season (Judge and Carroll +8 second), hitting seven home runs from 39 mats and hitting a 1.604 attack index. Its relevant data leads the league:

• Expected Weighted Base Rate (xwOBA): 0.671 (1st)
• Expected Long Hit Rate (xSLG): 1.126 (1st)
• Barrels: 14 (tied for 1st)
• Hits: 22 (3rd)

A 54.5 percent hit rate (previously 42.3 percent) combined with his talent puts pitchers in a dilemma: attacking the good ball zone is destroyed and throwing corners at risk — and Tatis has seven base stolen bases this season (tied for eighth in the league).

Speed regression
Escaping the effects of a 2023 right femur stress fracture, Tatis returned to a sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second (92 percentile), which is close to pre-injury levels. A high base rate (0.406, a career-high high) creates more steals. If the rhythm of 155 games is maintained, it will hit 52 hits and 45 thieves - comparable to Acuña's 2023 41 hits and 73 thieves and Ohtani Shohei's 2024 54 hits and 59 thieves.

All-round offensive and defensive
Tatis, who changed to trail starter, said: "Whether it's an infield hit, a home run or a short hit, I can create an opening advantage. Defensively, after the 2023 Platinum Glove Award and the 2024 OAA-2 trough, OAA+3 leads the league's right fielders this season.

Despite being just 26 years old and having just over 130 appearances in 2021 and 2023, Tatis has shown the potential to climb back to the top. He's healthy and well-healed, and he's leading the Padres to back-to-back playoff spots.