Edwin Díaz's ball speed has dropped from his peak highs. In the Mets' 8-2 win over the Astros on Wednesday, Diaz's four-seam fastball was between 93-95mph, similar to his spring training performance against the Red Sox last Thursday, according to the court's radar gun. Several scouts at the scene thought Diaz's ball speed was slightly higher than that, while Met officials said his ball speed was mostly in the mid-90mph range. (Statcast data is not available at CACTI Park, Palm Beach, the venue for the game.) ）

Mets coach Carlos Mendoza revealed that Diaz had shot 97mph in minor league games and called his clean sheets at practice and against the Astros Wednesday "encouraging." He praised the finisher's "pitching faith" and predicted that Diaz's ball speed will increase further as adrenaline rises when it comes to competitive action next week.

But what if the ball speed doesn't pick up? Although spring training radar gun readings are often overlooked, this is not a common occurrence for Diaz, even in March. As of Wednesday, Diaz was averaging 95.7mph with a four-stitch speedball, the lowest since Statcast began recording spring training numbers in 2020.

By comparison: Two years ago, Diaz averaged 99mph in spring training before he suffered a knee injury. Even when he returned from surgery last year, he averaged 97mph. During those two spring training periods, Diaz only threw two balls under 95mph in total. An opposition scout who has observed Diaz has pointed out that he no longer looks like "the familiar Diaz".

However, Diaz, Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner have a different view.

"I knew everything was going to be better at the start of the season," Diaz said, "so I'm not worried. My focus now is to stay in shape and increase the frequency of my pitching. "

Although Diaz has not dropped a point in his last three spring training games, he has been in trouble in each one. Against the Nationals on March 9, he narrowly defused the crisis after escorting two hitters; Four days later, he was knocked out to lead for a second base hit but managed to prevent the score; On Wednesday, he was hit two more hits without conceding a point.

Diaz may never be able to replicate the 99mph average of the 2022 "Trumpeter Season" (which went viral with his debut song "Narco"). Last year, he averaged 97.5mph with a four-seam speedball and only 12 balls broke 100mph (105 goals and 102.8mph in 2022).

Even if we can't get back to the top, the impact of the drop in ball speed may be limited. Diaz's best season (2022) may also have been his fastest season, but he's also been a top-tier finisher in the past with an average speed of less than 98mph. For example, in 2018, he had the slowest career average of 1.96 defense and 1.61 FIP (Defense Independent Pitcher Index).

New signing A.J. Minter Minter, who has been following Diaz for years, said: "When you can control the speedball, force the hitter to pick up the tempo and lock the fastball, you can throw them off balance. When Diaz's fastball is energetic and hits the good ball with precision, the hitter swings into the air. "

Diaz's ball pace did dip after the injury, but his possession also suffered. Last year, his run percentage increased by 0.74/9 innings compared to 2022 and his home run runs tripled, often as a result of the ball being missed.

It's true that Diaz's ball speed has dropped (and has been going on for more than a year), but he still has enough quality to succeed. 2022 may be a career year that Diaz can't replicate, but he can still be among the top finishers at his current level.

"There are some finishers in the world that make you feel like you don't have a chance, and you are even afraid of them in the ninth," Minter said, "and that's what a finisher should be, and that's what Diaz can provide." "