
Munetaka Murakami, who set the record for the most home runs by a Japanese-born player in a single season, is drawing widespread attention as he aims to enter MLB through the posting system. However, some media outlets and analysts remain cautious about his prospects in the major leagues, primarily concerned about his consistently high strikeout rate.
Data from Deltagraphs shows that Murakami’s swing-and-contact rate inside the strike zone this season is just 73%, far below the MLB average of 83%. His overall strikeout rate reaches 37% (league average is 25%), and when facing breaking balls, his strikeout rate soars to 49% (league average 33%).
Eno Sarris, a reporter for The Athletic, analyzed Murakami’s strike zone contact rate combined with his peak exit velocity (113.7 mph, approximately 182.98 km/h) and found that his hitting profile resembles that of nine MLB players including Christopher Morel, Joey Gallo, Gabriel Arias, Jose Siri, and Will Benson. These players have an average slash line of .218/.301/.409 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) and an adjusted wRC+ of 98.
Sarris bluntly stated: "I believe the closest comparison is Joey Gallo, or you could see him as Jose Siri, who lacks defensive ability in center and outfield. Although Shohei Ohtani had a strike zone contact rate of only 74% in NPB, suggesting room for improvement, players like Will Benson, with a slugging percentage of .419 this season, have not demonstrated market value matching the rumored contract figures."
Currently, major media outlets differ on his contract valuation: MLB Trade Rumors projects an 8-year, $180 million deal; FanGraphs estimates 7 years for $154 million; while The Athletic’s Tim Britton predicts an 8-year, $158.5 million contract.
FanGraphs analyst Eric Longenhagen further commented on a podcast that Murakami’s swing-and-contact rate against off-speed pitches is only 51%: "That’s really poor. In MLB, even the best changeup hitters maintain contact rates around this level, meaning Murakami might strike out 40-50% of the time against each off-speed pitch."